I was looking at fivethirtyeight.com, which has polling data for every state, and I noticed the last two polls for Texas: ARG 9/15 McCain 57 Obama 36 Rasmussen 9/29 McCain 52 Obama 43 That is a net swing of 12 point to Obama in two weeks in the reddest of states. Now, I should add that ARG and Rasmussen are not considered gold-standard polls. (There was an interesting flap at RealClearPolitics earlier this week–RCP was accused of dropping ARG, which, according to DailyKos, has been the best poll out there for McCain. I tried to link to RCP’s response but couldn’t find it. For DailyKos’s version of the flap, link here.) Texas is not immune from national events and trends. A twelve point swing five weeks before an election is a dangerous sign, and would be even more dangerous if verified by a big national poll. I think McCain will end up somewhere around 54-46 (not counting Barr and Nader), but if it gets any tighter, there are going to be some downballot surprises on election day.
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