Escobar is going to lose to Rios Ybarra. She just ran a better campaign. She knew that the key was Willacy County, and she beat him by a thousand votes there. She’s up by 800 votes overall. The precincts that are still out are in Cameron, which is her end of the district. Escobar is gone.

This was one of the two races that Trey Martinez Fischer singled out in his threatening letter to the lobby, warning them that opposing Escobar or Paul Moreno meant taking on the whole Democratic caucus. Escobar was a dead man the moment Rios Ybarra filed for the office. He is a decent enough fellow, but a plodding back bencher, and she is high voltage. The R’s recruited her, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her switch parties at some point. She can win that district as an R, and I think she is an R, not that it matters. Moreno may lose too.