Let the recriminations begin.Republicans nationally and in Texas are headed for a debate about why the GOP lost so badly in the national elections–and whether the victory in Texas was as decisive as it appeared to be. The central question will be whether Republicans lost the national election (and took
As Democrats celebrate picking up five seats in the Texas House of Representatives, they should reflect on what might have been. In a posting the morning after the election (see “Seaman vs. Garcia: One Box to Go” in the blog archives), I listed seven races other House that were close
Now that A&M president Robert Gates has been named Secretary of Defense, who will be his successor? This is a question of considerable importance to the state, because A&M has become an academic powerhouse under its last two presidents, Gates and before him Ray Bowen. The concern that I have
Since the entire blogging world is writing about the choice of Texas A&M president Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense, I might as well weigh in, having just written 8,000 words about him in the cover story of the November issue of TEXAS MONTHLY. In my opinion, President Bush could
The time has come for Tom Craddick to resign as Speaker of the House.He is losing the war. The body armor he supplies to his troops in political warfare–money money money–is ineffective against the enemy’s ideological fervor for better public schools. The more he flouts his assets–James Leininger, Bob Perry–the
At 6:10 a.m., with 76 of 77 precincts accounted for:Gene Seaman (R) 16,696Juan Garcia (D) 16,672If Garcia can win the last box by at least 25 votes, Democrats will pick a fifth Republican seat. They lost no seats of their own. The partisan division in the House of Representatives will
On a night when the top of the Democratic ticket got clobbered, the wave came from the bottom. Despite having to contend with a legislative redistricting map that was drawn four years ago to achieve a permanent Republican majority, despite the best efforts of a GOP fundraising machine that had
Chuck Hopson (D) holds a 1,400 vote lead over Larry Durrett with 2 precincts outstanding.
Who cares about the U.S. Senate? And control of the U.S. House? Forget it. What really matters is the battle for the Texas House. So far, this is the one bright spot for Democrats in the state. Incumbents are underlined.Mark Homer (D) – Kirby Hollandsworth (R). Homer beat Hollandsworth in
Early vote only:Martha Wong (R) 5,256Ellen Cohen (D) 7,663This was the Republican state House seat that was regarded as the most vulnerable in the state, apparently for good reason.
Hutchison has climbed over 63%. Impressive.The governor’s race has been remarkably stable. Perry is still at 40, Bell still at 29, Strayhorn still at 18, Kinky still at 10.Never let it be said that Tom DeLay doesn’t know what he’s doing. Only four Republican incumbents are polling under 60% in
Still nothing but early votes from the Lampson vs. Sekula-Gibbs race, but very bad indicators for the Republican write-in candidate. This was a district that President Bush visited:Nick Lampson (D) 23,718/49.82%Bob Smither (L) 2,205/4.63%Joe Reasbeck (W-I) 40/0.08%Don Richardson (W-I) 8,705/18.28%Shelley Sekula Gibbs (W-I) 12,943/27.18%With the libertarian candidate polling well and
If there was ever any doubt about it, let’s say it again: Texas is a hugely Republican state. You would never know that the Rs are taking on the chin in many states tonight. There is absolutely zero sign of Democratic life in statewide or congressional races. The only close
The governor’s race is following the 40/30/20/10 model:Perry 354,989/41.31%Bell 248,570/28.92%Strayhorn 160,897/18.72%Friedman 87,767/10.18%Hutchison 611,611Radnofsky 360,36061.7% to 36.36%Congressional:Chet Edwards up two to one over Van TaylorLampson pulls ahead of Sekula-Gibbs, 14,624-12,914. Good news for Sekula Gibbs: other write-ins and Libertarian are getting just 5% of the vote.Surprisingly close race in Corpus Christi/Valley
Early returns (mostly early vote):Hutchison 66.01%Radnofsky 32.44%Here’s an interesting one (early vote):Lampson 11,635Sekula-Gibbs 12,914Perry 44.16%Bell 27.46%Strayhorn 18.22%Friedman 9.67%No statewide down-ballot Republicans are having any trouble at all. Dewhurst, Abbott, and Combs all have vote totals in the 43,000s.
From a Republican consultant, passed on by a third party:Perry 40+Bell 29Strayhorn 19Friedman 11Note that this resembles the 40-30-20-10 model that has always appeared to be the most likely outcome of the race.
Yesterday I finally decided how I would cast my vote for governor: for Kinky Friedman. I have never before cast a vote primarily as a protest, for a candidate I thought had no chance to win. Voting is a great privilege, and I have always been inclined to exercise it
This is going to be a long post that covers all of the statewide races, the major legislative races, and any other race that could be interesting. I’m going to start with races for the state House of Representatives, because this is where the action is in this election cycle,
I’ve been so wrapped up in the elections that I have neglected to post SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking poll of the approval ratings of U.S. senators. John Cornyn is one of twelve senators whose disapproval rating (43%) is higher than his approval rating (40%). The benchmarks represent Cornyn’s highest disapproval rating
Zogby’s latest poll has Chris Bell within 8 points of Rick Perry:Perry 36.7Bell 28.5Strayhorn 15Friedman 14.4Bell has managed to hang around in the governor’s race despite having terrible fundraising problems (which I detailed in a previous post, “Rhymes with ‘Cash'”), and, as a result, only a sporadic presence on television.
I confess to being fixated on the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Every morning I check for the latest polls in Indiana’s 2nd congressional district, New Mexico’s 1st, Connecticut’s 4th, Pennsylvania’s 6th. In all I’m following 53 races, all of them except Texas’s 22nd involving candidates
Crash! That sound is the end of Chris Bell’s hope to remain competitive in the governor’s race. Friday was the eighth day before the election, the deadline for the last filing period for campaign contributions, and Bell reported just $84,106 cash on hand for the final week. Bell’s impoverishment could
I heard Barack Obama speak at the annual book festival at the Capitol on Saturday. Attendance in the House Chamber was limited to people who had blue or red wrist bands, for seating on the floor or in the gallery, respectively. TEXAS MONTHLY had six of the coveted blue strips.
…today’s hot rumor in the governor’s race.Which is, that Perry is falling and Strayhorn is rising. The source, apparently, is the Strayhorn campaign, which may release an internal poll tomorrow showing Strayhorn overtaking Bell in the race for second. Perry is in the low thirties, Strayhorn in the mid-twenties, and
Please note the Texas-shaped icon on the right side of the main page of the blog. You can download an Excel file that contains all of the races above the county level–U.S. Senate and House, statewide offices, the two high courts, State Board of Education, and all 181 legislative races,
Earlier in the day I mentioned the rumor that the Bell campaign had a poll showing their candidate just five points behind Perry (32%-27%). Not so, says Jason Stanford with the Bell campaign. He did state his belief that Perry’s ceiling has dropped to 35% of the vote. That’s what
Blogging is so much fun. You can make a fool of yourself daily, instead of once a month. One day you pronounce a candidate dead, based on Poll A. The next day, Poll B resurrects her, and you get to explain that. Oh for the leisurely days of monthly journalism.Yesterday,
The Capitol was rife with rumors yesterday, one a revival of the persistent story that Strayhorn’s trial lawyer supporters were meeting to decide whether to persuade her to get out of the race and endorse Bell. Like all good rumors, this one had some specific information, such as where the
Suppose you are Secretary of State Roger Williams, Texas’s chief elections officer. As early voting is about to begin, three universities in San Antonio want to be designated as early voting sites. One is the University of Texas at San Antonio, with 28,000 students. One is Trinity University, with around
The latest SurveyUSA poll in the governor’s race shows Bell pulling away from Strayhorn to make the governor’s race a two-person contest. This is the matchup Rick Perry wanted. What’s that old saying? Something about, Be careful what you wish for.Here are the results (466 likely voters, margin of error
I came across this quote from a Democratic pollster on the Web site politicalwire.com, crediting another Web site, pollster.com. It neatly summarizes the race for the House of Representatives and suggests that any celebrating by the Democrats about taking over the House is premature:“There’s a big anti-Republican wave out
One of the perils of serving in Congress is that members lose touch with their constituents. They get arrogant. They forget–pardon me for being trite and idealistic; I know it’s unworthy of a member of the media–that they work for the people. Take the four congressmen who represent the Austin
The San Antonio Express-News and the Austin American Statesman both endorsed Rick Perry. The Express-News was the most enthusiastic of the three big-city papers that favored the incumbent governor (the Dallas Morning News being the third). It focused almost entirely on the governor’s record, particularly his leadership in solving
No surprise here, except that the endorsement of Perry is so lukewarm. These are the initial paragraphs of the editorial:“Rick Perry has focused his nearly six-year governorship on building Texas his way – protecting the business climate, attracting jobs, laying concrete.“The question for voters Nov. 7 is whether his focus
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram endorsed Chris Bell in the governor’s race. I confess to being flabbergasted. I thought it was as certain to endorse Rick Perry as the Dallas Morning News was. Here is the paper’s reasoning:“Texas government needs a change.“Ever since 2002’s scandal-plagued legislative elections, which were laced
Early voting starts Monday. How does the governor’s race stand on election eve? The same way it has stood for months, with Rick Perry ahead but vulnerable and his three major challengers trying to break out of the pack but unable to do so.The four most crucial days in this
Republicans are circulating on the Internet an article from Human Events by Texan John O’Neill, of Swift Boat Vets fame, urging conservatives not to let disillusionment prevent them from going to the polls on election day. (Human Events bills itself as “The National Conservative Weekly, the Weekly Standard notwithstanding.)
SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking poll of the approval rating of all state governors, released October 19, shows Rick Perry with 40% approval and 56% disapproval. Only seven governors had approval ratings lower than Perry’s. Normally, such a high disapproval record would suggest that he is headed for defeat, but this is
The Houston Chronicle this morning endorsed Carole Keeton Strayhorn for governor. Editorial endorsements don’t carry the weight that they once did, and the Chronicle tends to be viewed by Republicans as a liberal paper, but they do carry some weight, particularly when they are unpredictable. (The sun would fail to
The latest Zogby/Wall Street Journal/Battleground States Poll, released today, describes a governor’s race in which the major party candidates have broken away from the independents. The results:Perry 37.5%Bell 26.2%Friedman 13.2%Strayhorn 13.0%Werner (L) 3.9%The first question that should be asked about any Zogby poll is: Is it credible? Zogby does
A new Texans for Insurance Reform poll, by Austin-based Opinion Analysts, is being talked about but not officially public. The grapevine says that Perry remains in the mid-thirties, that Strayhorn and Bell are tied for second in the 20% range, and that Friedman has fallen into the high single digits,
Sender: GOPUSASubject: Senator Rick Santorum: Principled and Caring
Today’s Washington Times has a story in which Karl Rove is quoted as telling the paper’s editors and reporters at a private luncheon that Republicans will hold onto their majorities in the House and Senate. This is a dog-bites-man story; it would be news if Rove had said anything
Everybody who follows national politics–except Karl Rove–“knows” that there is general agreement that a Democratic wave is going to sweep the Republicans out of control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Maybe I just got off the bus from Mars, but I don’t see it happening.Is it possible for the
Not good. The monthly tracking poll finds only four states in which the president’s approval rating is above the water line. AND TEXAS IS NOT ONE OF THEM.The short list:Idaho 57%Utah 57%Wyoming 52%Montana 50%Texas comes in at 45%, down from 50% in September. Nebraska, which also favored Bush last
Stick a fork in Van Taylor. He’s done. The Associated Press is reporting, in a story datelined Washington, that Republicans have pulled the plug on his challenge to Chet Edwards in the 17th congressional district. The relevant paragraph:“Republican officials also appeared to have decided not to use more than
Chris Bell put John O’Quinn’s $1 million contribution to good use with a hard-hitting TV spot (“Sacrifice”) about the mismanagement of the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) by Accenture, the company that won the contract, worth approximately $1 billion, to administer eligibility and enrollment for state health and welfare services.
If you were a Texas Republican strategist in charge of devising the party’s overall strategy in this election, what would worry you the most? The answer is turnout. With the war in Iraq going badly and President Bush’s approval rating at 42% and the Mark Foley scandal still in the
The $1 million contribution Chris Bell received from flamboyant plaintiffs lawyer John O’Quinn (with perhaps more to follow) came with some not-so-hidden-charges in the form of a tough response ad from the Perry campaign. Here is the text of the spot, narrated in voice-over mode:“Just when you thought it was
The 17th congressional district, which takes in the southern Fort Worth suburbs, down to Waco, and east to Bryan-College Station, is the most Republican district in the country occupied by a Democrat. George W. Bush got 70% of the vote here in 2oo4. Nevertheless, incumbent Democrat Chet Edwards of Waco