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PBS — Behind the Numbers

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Stu Rothenberg commenting on the numbers

Current vote (Missour):
Huckabee 35%
McCain 32%
Romney 27%

Numbers could move. Huckabee not running well in the suburbs. Lots of suburban and St. Louis vote still out.

3/4 of Missouri Rs say abortion should be illegal. Three candidates split them.
1/4 are pro choice

1/2 of Missouri Rs are favorable toward Bush. Three candidates split.
40% negative toward Bush. McCain wins them.

3/4 of primary is self identified Republicans: McCain leads slightly
1/4 of primary is independent: McCain has big lead

Obama wins Minnesota caucuses. Clinton has won 6 states, Obama 8. But she has the big ones.

Obama winning 82% out of St. Louis city and very little of that vote is in. We’re going to go all the way to the convention.

Romney is speaking. One thing that’s clear tonight is, This campaign is going on.
We’re going all the way to the convention. [Hey, I’m for that. I’m going to the Republican convention to blog about it. Let’s have some action.]

Georgia: Huckabee 35, McCain 32, Romney 27. Too close to call, but I bet Huckabee wins.

I thought Arizona was going to be close. In fact, Stu Rothenberg was giving a bunch of numbers about how well Romney was doing with core Republican groups when Jim Lehrer broke in. 3% of the vote in, and they called the state for McCain, 52%.

Huckabee wins Tennessee, that’s his fourth state and Georgia is still out there, and Missouri.

Fifteen minutes until California polls close.

Clinton is leading in Arizona, 50-39. Too soon to call. 62% of the vote is women, Hillary leads 51-45. Governor endorsed Obama. Impressive win by Clinton. 58% of the Latino vote.

New Mexico: Clinton got the support of the Richardson crowd. Latinos supported her. He hasn’t endorsed. Obama is running well among Anglo Democrats.

Huckabee wins Georgia with 35%.

Clinton is leading in Missouri, 53-44. I went to the Sec of State web site Rove talked about. Now it’s 54-42. Our Sec of State could learn something. There are still 145 precincts of 209 that haven’t reported in St. Louis city, where Obama is winning 71%, so the state can’t be called yet. But it looks good for Clinton. You have to realize that the Clintons have been doing this since 1990, maybe earlier, and they have contacts and donors in every state and volunteers everywhere, and it’s just hard for a first-term senator with to build a nationwide organization in a year.

Clinton is making a very good speech. She’s on a roll.

POLLS ARE CLOSED IN CALIFORNIA

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