Perry gained 1 point since the previous poll. Hutchison lost 4 points. Medina gained 4 points. Hutchison now is lower in the polls (29) than Perry was (30) when she first announced that she would run for governor. Key stat: If voters maintain their current attitudes, Hutchison needs 50% of the primary to be political moderates in order to overtake Perry going into the runoff. That is about as much of a chance as her giving a straightforward answer to a question about abortion. Perry’s numbers among Republican primary voters are off the charts: 80% favorable 4% unfavorable Hutchison’s favorables remain high (67%) I don’t think this warrants much more analysis. She has been on the defensive since she voted for the TARP bailout. She has had a year and a half to offer a counter-argument and hasn’t done it. For that matter, she has had a year and a half to explain why she wants to be governor, and what she would do if elected, and she hasn’t done it. Nothing Hutchison has tried has worked. Her advertising is bad. Her most recent debate performance was bad. Her strategy of trying to out-conservative Perry was self-defeating. There is still a chance that Medina could overtake Hutchison and finish second. Medina would have to gain 7 points and Hutchison would have to lose 6 points. That is a long shot. But I do think Medina has a shot at getting to 20%.
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