This represents a net six point gain for Perry over the May poll (Perry +4, Hutchison -2). The spread itself is bad enough for the Hutchison camp, but even worse is that Perry has passed her in favorability ratings. This would have been seen as inconceivable at the time Hutchison announced her exploratory committee last December. Favorable/Unfavorable Perry 76% favorable, 23% unfavorable Hutchison 72% favorable, 25% unfavorable Job Performance Perry 74% approve, 25% disapprove Hutchison (no results given) Gender support Men: Perry +17 points Women: virtual tie Events are trending strongly in Perry’s favor: Tea parties: 82% of likely primary voters view favorably Economic stimulus: 7% say that it has helped, 61% say it has hurt Health care plan: 12% support, 83% oppose What is the case for a Hutchison victory at this point? There’s only one argument that I can think of, and that is she can expand the primary turnout. That seems a lot less likely today than it did when she first got into the race. It’s hard to beat an incumbent with 76% favorability and 74% job approval. I have been very critical of the Hutchison non-campaign, but the fact is that the reason for these numbers isn’t what Hutchison hasn’t done. It’s what Perry has done.