Only 8% are undecided, with 5% preferring some other candidate. As with all Rasmussen polls, this one was an automated-response telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted on a single day (June 16). The margin of error is is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Readers are probably familiar by now with the charge, leveled mostly by Democrats but also by some polling analysts, that Rasmussen’s polls lean toward producing a “Democratic doom scenario” early in a campaign, when they can impact public perceptions, but as an election draws closer, they fall more into line with other polling. On election day 2008, Rasmussen nailed the presidential election results in Texas. For more on this subject, scroll down to yesterday’s post, “Washington Post on the Rasmussen controversy.” Some other numbers from the poll: Perry job approval 53% approve 45% disapprove Perry’s negatives are very high. This just reinforces what a polarizing figure he is. Two years ago at this time, Hillary Clinton’s negatives were 44% (Real Clear Politics). High negatives put a ceiling on how well a candidate can perform, but I think that ceiling, for Perry, is still above 50%. Independent voters (Rasmussen calls them “voters not affiliated with either major party”) favor Perry over White by 14 points. Rasmussen writes:” Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.” Here are those numbers: Perry “Very Favorable” 15% White “Very Favorable” 18% Perry “Very Unfavorable” 21% White “Very Unfavorable” 16% Perry’s high negatives and unimpressive favorable/unfavorable numbers give White something to build on. But Perry’s 14-point edge among independents is the number White has to change if he has any hope of making this a real contest.
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