The previous poll was 48-40, so very little change. Curiously, Rasmussen describes Perry’s lead as “modest.” Since the MOE is +/- 4./5%, Perry’s nine-point edge is the largest possible advantage that is still within the margin of error. Perhaps Rasmussen is downplaying Perry’s lead as a reaction to recent criticism from polling junkies that his polls have a Republican “house effect.” Is there any reason for optimism in the White camp? (1) Perry’s job approval numbers are 55% approve, 44% disapprove. At +11, these numbers mirror the horse-race numbers. No good news there. Independents? Perry +6. No good news there. Texans’ view of the economy is turning darker: Good or excellent: 12% Poor 51% Economy improving: 25% Economy getting worse 50% These views could help White. but Perry has established himself as an advocate for jobs and economic growth, and it will be hard for White to undo that perception. Favorable/Unfavorable: Perry 17% very favorable. 20% very unfavorable White 24% very favorable, 18% very unfavorable Perry’s numbers are upside down, White’s are rightside up. Anything involving national politics–health care repeal, the Arizona immigration lawsuit–is overwhelmingly in favor of Republicans. I don’t see much to dwell on here. Perry has a solid lead. National trends are in his favor. He has to watch out for shifting views on the state’s economy. His job disapproval is high, but his approval is higher. Among voters with strong feelings, Perry is -3, White is +6. Very little new information. As has been true of previous polls, this one was conducted before the race has begun in earnest. The poll was conducted on July 13. July 15 is the semiannual reporting deadline for the fundraising period that includes the election. Only when the candidates go up on TV in earnest will we have an idea about what their messages are and whether they are effective.
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