Karl was on Fox tonight talking about Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, which Obama is leading but not by much; the RealClearPolitics.com average of three recent polls shows Obama with 46.3% of the vote and Clinton with 42%.
Rove made the point that the Wisconsin electorate is very different from those in the Potomac Primary: not many blacks, mostly blue collar, low number of college graduates, a lot of white women. While he stopped short of predicting a Clinton victory, he did indicate that the nature of the electorate was such that Obama and Clinton are likely to split the delegates, plus or minus a few either way.
I know, I know. Some readers don’t like hearing about Rove. But nobody knows the numbers in American politics better than he does. Geraldo tried to bait him by saying how much the media loves Obama, especially Chris Matthews, and that they haven’t investigated him they way they investigate other candidates, but Rove wouldn’t take the bait. He said that everybody gets scrutinized in a political campaign. He was very respectful of Obama, none of this “flawed candidate” talk. I have heard from mutual friends that Rove thinks that Obama will be easier to defeat than Clinton–not because he is black, but because he has less experience and is more likely to make mistakes.