I learned today about a method of analyzing House races that may be able to predict winners (no warranties, expressed or implied) in close races for the Texas House of Representatives. The idea is to determine whether Democrats have a chance to win certain races, based on primary turnout of the two parties and Obama’s percentage in the presidential primary. Take Michael “Tuffy” Hamilton. Republican primary turnout in the district: 4,714 = 6.2% of registered voters Democratic primary turnout in the district: 25,465 = 33.4% of registered voters Looks pretty good for the Democrats, right? But: only 22.9% of Democrats voted for Obama in the presidential primary Conclusion: mostly white conservative voters. Hamilton wins. (Hamilton is an icon in his community. We didn’t need a formula to tell us he is going to win.) Zedler-Turner R primary turnout (rounded) 9,600 D primary turnout (rounded) 16,900 Obama %: 61.6 Big trouble for Zedler Barrett-Shelton R primary turnout (rounded) 13,000 D primary turnout (rounded) 14,000 Obama % 52. Too close to call Goolsby-Kent R primary turnout (rounded) 4,800 D primary turnout (rounded) 7,300 Obama % 57 Could be trouble It doesn’t work for all districts. In Dan Branch’s district, R’s cast 5,300 primary votes, D’s 8,400. Obama got 53.5%. But some of those votes were from moderate/disillusioned R’s. Branch isn’t going to lose. Anderson-Miklos R primary turnout (rounded) 7,500 D primary turnout (rounded) 8,800 Obama %: 55 Could be trouble
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