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The Primary Calendar

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After today’s Potomac Primary, here’s what is left:

2/19 Hawaii caucuses, Wisconsin primary.

3/4 Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont primaries

3/8 Wyoming primary (D)

3/11 Mississippi primary

4/22 Pennsylvania primary

5/6 Indiana and North Carolina primaries

5/13 West Virginia primary (D), Nebraska Primary (R)

5/20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries

6/3 Montana, New Mexico (R), and South Dakota primaries

The most telling thing about this calendar is that there are a lot of red states left in which Huckabee could be competitive with McCain, causing the Republican nominee-apparent considerable embarrassment. Given the ferocity of the immigration issue here, Huckabee will be competitive in Texas, and he still has three more southern primaries: Kentucky, North Carolina, and Mississippi. The more state Huckabee carries, the weaker McCain will be going into the Republican convention.

On the Democratic side, eighteen states have yet to hold primaries, but most of them are red states. Because the Democratic candidate seldom carries these states, their delegations are smaller than those of true blue states. The true blues on this list are Hawaii, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The only true blue state with a lot of votes is Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and New Mexico were tossup states in 04; the former was won by Kerry, the latter by Bush. In short, it’s going to be hard for someone who is behind to catch up.

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