This was sent today on the letterhead of Baselice & Associates to Texans for Rick Perry: Below are a few results from a telephone survey of N=609 randomly selected Republican primary voters in Texas that we conducted December 19-21, 2009. The margin of error to the results of this survey is +/- 4.1% at the .95 test level. [Text about media availability omitted]. Just as we observed in our survey conducted a few months ago, Rick Perry holds a double-digit lead over challenger Kay Bailey Hutchison. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Q. If the Republican primary election for Governor of Texas was held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following candidates would you vote? (Randomize choices) 49% Rick Perry 36% Kay Bailey Hutchison 5% Debra Medina 1% Other names (volunteered) 10% Undecided / refused (volunteered) ____________________________________________________________________________________________ (More commentary from the Baselice poll) Since Hutchison spent nearly three million dollars on media in the last four weeks, and Perry spent about one million dollars, it is not unexpected for there to be more recall of Hutchison’s ads than Perry’s ads. However, the expenditures by Hutchison have not generated the results her campaign intended as Perry leads Hutchison by 54% to 36% among those respondents who can recall television ads about both candidates. Moreover, Perry even leads Hutchison by 46% to 40% among those respondents who recall television ads only about Hutchison. * * * * These are terrible numbers for Hutchison. Millions down the drain. There is nothing new to say, except that there is nothing new to say. Perry rising, Hutchison falling, has been the trend line since March, with the one exception of an outlier Rasmussen poll in the fall that showed Hutchison ahead 42-38, but in a subset of Republican primary voters, Perry was +5. Hutchison’s media is having so little effect that it might not even leave him battered and bruised going into the general election campaign. The Hutchison campaign has had a lot to say about how negative the media has been about her campaign, but the numbers speak for themselves. Thanks to Evan Smith for sharing these numbers with me.
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