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Will a Gender Gap Affect Border Races?

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A source with the Sandra Rodriguez campaign, which is locked in a tight battle against incumbent Kino Flores, told me yesterday that women account for 58% of the early vote in the legislative district. Hillary Clinton is attracting Latinas to the polls. If this is a trend along the entire border, then other beneficiaries could be Tara Rios Ybarra, who is challenging Juan Escobar in the district that runs along the lower Gulf Coast, and Marisa Marquez, who is trying to oust Paul Moreno in from his seat in central El Paso. Many Democrats believe that Marquez and Rios Ybarra are Craddick D’s in the making. If this turns out to be true, here is a Hillaryous political irony: Tom Craddick has been counting on Clinton, as the Democratic nominee, to stimulate a large Republican turnout in November, which could sweep incumbent Democratic legislators out of office. But Clinton apparently is not going to be the Democratic nominee. Nevertheless, in defeat, Clinton might help elect a couple of pro-Craddick Democrats who are backed by Republican money.

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