Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath, nor motion (to vacate the chair)
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean (is there nothing there?)

Where does the insurgency stand?

I don’t see how anyone in either camp can be confident of victory. Unless there has been some late movement I don’t know about, the insurgents have at least 73 votes. I’m counting the 68 voters for the Geren amendment, although The Waltzer might not be solid, and five known pickups: Cook, Hill, Keffer, Lucio, Rose. The Turk could go with the insurgency too, as could the Bad, Bad guy–but Craddick may have won back the latter. I’m trying to keep my clues obscure. Rugged Elsinore and The Rabbit are the two flip-floppers. I’m counting The Menace (there’s a gimme) for Craddick, and also the playmaker from John Thompson III’s team, despite speculation by conservatives that both support the insurgency. I’d love to open the Capitol Casino and take bets on this one. My line would be Craddick minus 3.5.