As the legislative session approaches, the Republican majority in the House of Representaives is 80-69, with one seat yet to be decided. That seat was occupied by the late Glenda Dawson, whose death from a brief illness occurred too late for her name to be replaced on the ballot. The
Those who thought Nancy Pelosi’s main problem as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives would be her extreme liberalism were wrong. It’s her lousy political instincts. She couldn’t last a week in a leadership position in the Texas Legislature. Pelosi has displayed two shortcomings that, if not corrected, will
For readers who continue to be interested in Bob Gates’ nomination as Secretary of Defense, and are interested in CIA history as well, I recommend this Web site:http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB208/index.htmThe site includes not only information from the national security archives, but also an excellent, fair, and highly readable excerpt about Gates
John Cornyn’s comparative ranking has fallen in the latest Survey USA ratings of the 100 United States Senators, although his own approval and disapproval ratings actually improved. Last month, Cornyn was ranked 87th, with an approval rating of 40 percent and a disapproval of 43. This month, with an
Robert Gates, the Texas A&M president and nominee for Secretary of Defense, continues to be dogged by critics who accuse him of politicizing intelligence when he was deputy director of the CIA under William Casey in the eighties. The latest to weigh in is a former Soviet analyst Jennifer Glaudemans
The decision by Governor Perry to set the runoff for the 23rd congressional district on December 12 is a big boost for incumbent Henry Bonilla and may deter national Democratic strategists from making a major financial commitment to Ciro Rodriguez. By choosing the earliest possible date for the run-off, Perry
In SurveyUSA’s first monthly poll of presidential and gubernatorial approval ratings since the election, both President Bush and Governor Perry posted their worst disapproval ratings in a year. Perry had an approval rating of 41% and a disapproval rating of 56%. This is in the ballpark of
The self-destruction of Shelley Sekula-Gibbs means that the race for the Republican nomination against Democrat Nick Lampson in 2008 in the 22nd congressional district is wide open. She came to Washington as the most obscure member of Congress, the winner of a special election to fill Tom DeLay’s unexpired term
What chance does Ciro Rodriguez have to beat Henry Bonilla in the 23rd congressional district runoff?If you look only at fundraising and political skill, it’s Bonilla by a landslide. But that is not all there is to politics. Races are fundamentally about numbers, and the numbers (based on normal turnout)
The experts on Hispanic voting in Texas, the nonpartisan Willie Velasquez Institute in San Antonio, reported this breakdown for Hispanics in the governor’s race:Bell 39.6%Strayhorn 28.6%Friedman 14.3%Perry 13.9%Other 3.6%The Velasquez Institute based its findings on exit polls of 440 respondents conducted in 32 selected precincts across the state.As
This is a perpetual lament in Texas Democatic politics, only the lack of Hispanic participation was worse than usual. One obvious reason for the dropoff compared to 2002 was that an Hispanic, Tony Sanchez, was the Democratic nominee for governor four years ago, while the candidate this year was Chris
A couple of incidents since the election raise the issue of whether Texas Democrats are acting just like the Republicans they most love to hate–Tom DeLay and Tom Craddick–by resorting to threats and extreme partisanship. Case 1: The state’s Democratic congressional delegation asked Governor Perry to fire the two former
Barbara Ann Radnofsky, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, is keeping her hand in the political game. She is hosting a fundraiser Monday for Ciro Rodriguez, the D’s challenger to Republican Henry Bonilla in Congressional District 23. The invitation includes mention of “special guest” Nick Lampson and “honorary hosts” Chris
This is an amended version of a posting from yesterday.The topic du jour was the possibility of a speaker’s race (which is more talk than action, so far). The speculation focused on two actions of Governor Perry. One was his comment, when asked about a speaker’s race, that it was
Several days ago, I wrote a piece headlined “Bob Gates is the Right Choice” [to replace Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense]. Joey Kolker, a student of mine, came across the following article from the Baltimore Sun that takes a different view and fowarded it to me. The author,
Whose stock rose, whose fell, on November 7:Rose: Fred Baron. Other trial lawyers lavished millions on the Chris Bell and Carole Keetonm Strayhorn campaigns and came away with nothing to show for it. Baron created and funded ($1.7 million) the Texas Democratic Trust, and Dallas Democrats leveraged the money into
Let the recriminations begin.Republicans nationally and in Texas are headed for a debate about why the GOP lost so badly in the national elections–and whether the victory in Texas was as decisive as it appeared to be. The central question will be whether Republicans lost the national election (and took
As Democrats celebrate picking up five seats in the Texas House of Representatives, they should reflect on what might have been. In a posting the morning after the election (see “Seaman vs. Garcia: One Box to Go” in the blog archives), I listed seven races other House that were close
Now that A&M president Robert Gates has been named Secretary of Defense, who will be his successor? This is a question of considerable importance to the state, because A&M has become an academic powerhouse under its last two presidents, Gates and before him Ray Bowen. The concern that I have
Since the entire blogging world is writing about the choice of Texas A&M president Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense, I might as well weigh in, having just written 8,000 words about him in the cover story of the November issue of TEXAS MONTHLY. In my opinion, President Bush could
The time has come for Tom Craddick to resign as Speaker of the House.He is losing the war. The body armor he supplies to his troops in political warfare–money money money–is ineffective against the enemy’s ideological fervor for better public schools. The more he flouts his assets–James Leininger, Bob Perry–the
At 6:10 a.m., with 76 of 77 precincts accounted for:Gene Seaman (R) 16,696Juan Garcia (D) 16,672If Garcia can win the last box by at least 25 votes, Democrats will pick a fifth Republican seat. They lost no seats of their own. The partisan division in the House of Representatives will
On a night when the top of the Democratic ticket got clobbered, the wave came from the bottom. Despite having to contend with a legislative redistricting map that was drawn four years ago to achieve a permanent Republican majority, despite the best efforts of a GOP fundraising machine that had
Chuck Hopson (D) holds a 1,400 vote lead over Larry Durrett with 2 precincts outstanding.
Who cares about the U.S. Senate? And control of the U.S. House? Forget it. What really matters is the battle for the Texas House. So far, this is the one bright spot for Democrats in the state. Incumbents are underlined.Mark Homer (D) – Kirby Hollandsworth (R). Homer beat Hollandsworth in
Early vote only:Martha Wong (R) 5,256Ellen Cohen (D) 7,663This was the Republican state House seat that was regarded as the most vulnerable in the state, apparently for good reason.
Hutchison has climbed over 63%. Impressive.The governor’s race has been remarkably stable. Perry is still at 40, Bell still at 29, Strayhorn still at 18, Kinky still at 10.Never let it be said that Tom DeLay doesn’t know what he’s doing. Only four Republican incumbents are polling under 60% in
Still nothing but early votes from the Lampson vs. Sekula-Gibbs race, but very bad indicators for the Republican write-in candidate. This was a district that President Bush visited:Nick Lampson (D) 23,718/49.82%Bob Smither (L) 2,205/4.63%Joe Reasbeck (W-I) 40/0.08%Don Richardson (W-I) 8,705/18.28%Shelley Sekula Gibbs (W-I) 12,943/27.18%With the libertarian candidate polling well and
If there was ever any doubt about it, let’s say it again: Texas is a hugely Republican state. You would never know that the Rs are taking on the chin in many states tonight. There is absolutely zero sign of Democratic life in statewide or congressional races. The only close
The governor’s race is following the 40/30/20/10 model:Perry 354,989/41.31%Bell 248,570/28.92%Strayhorn 160,897/18.72%Friedman 87,767/10.18%Hutchison 611,611Radnofsky 360,36061.7% to 36.36%Congressional:Chet Edwards up two to one over Van TaylorLampson pulls ahead of Sekula-Gibbs, 14,624-12,914. Good news for Sekula Gibbs: other write-ins and Libertarian are getting just 5% of the vote.Surprisingly close race in Corpus Christi/Valley
Early returns (mostly early vote):Hutchison 66.01%Radnofsky 32.44%Here’s an interesting one (early vote):Lampson 11,635Sekula-Gibbs 12,914Perry 44.16%Bell 27.46%Strayhorn 18.22%Friedman 9.67%No statewide down-ballot Republicans are having any trouble at all. Dewhurst, Abbott, and Combs all have vote totals in the 43,000s.
From a Republican consultant, passed on by a third party:Perry 40+Bell 29Strayhorn 19Friedman 11Note that this resembles the 40-30-20-10 model that has always appeared to be the most likely outcome of the race.
Yesterday I finally decided how I would cast my vote for governor: for Kinky Friedman. I have never before cast a vote primarily as a protest, for a candidate I thought had no chance to win. Voting is a great privilege, and I have always been inclined to exercise it
This is going to be a long post that covers all of the statewide races, the major legislative races, and any other race that could be interesting. I’m going to start with races for the state House of Representatives, because this is where the action is in this election cycle,
I’ve been so wrapped up in the elections that I have neglected to post SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking poll of the approval ratings of U.S. senators. John Cornyn is one of twelve senators whose disapproval rating (43%) is higher than his approval rating (40%). The benchmarks represent Cornyn’s highest disapproval rating
She was our governor, but she was my friend.
Rick Perry’s inner monologue.
Zogby’s latest poll has Chris Bell within 8 points of Rick Perry:Perry 36.7Bell 28.5Strayhorn 15Friedman 14.4Bell has managed to hang around in the governor’s race despite having terrible fundraising problems (which I detailed in a previous post, “Rhymes with ‘Cash'”), and, as a result, only a sporadic presence on television.
I confess to being fixated on the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Every morning I check for the latest polls in Indiana’s 2nd congressional district, New Mexico’s 1st, Connecticut’s 4th, Pennsylvania’s 6th. In all I’m following 53 races, all of them except Texas’s 22nd involving candidates
Crash! That sound is the end of Chris Bell’s hope to remain competitive in the governor’s race. Friday was the eighth day before the election, the deadline for the last filing period for campaign contributions, and Bell reported just $84,106 cash on hand for the final week. Bell’s impoverishment could
I heard Barack Obama speak at the annual book festival at the Capitol on Saturday. Attendance in the House Chamber was limited to people who had blue or red wrist bands, for seating on the floor or in the gallery, respectively. TEXAS MONTHLY had six of the coveted blue strips.
…today’s hot rumor in the governor’s race.Which is, that Perry is falling and Strayhorn is rising. The source, apparently, is the Strayhorn campaign, which may release an internal poll tomorrow showing Strayhorn overtaking Bell in the race for second. Perry is in the low thirties, Strayhorn in the mid-twenties, and
Please note the Texas-shaped icon on the right side of the main page of the blog. You can download an Excel file that contains all of the races above the county level–U.S. Senate and House, statewide offices, the two high courts, State Board of Education, and all 181 legislative races,
Earlier in the day I mentioned the rumor that the Bell campaign had a poll showing their candidate just five points behind Perry (32%-27%). Not so, says Jason Stanford with the Bell campaign. He did state his belief that Perry’s ceiling has dropped to 35% of the vote. That’s what
Blogging is so much fun. You can make a fool of yourself daily, instead of once a month. One day you pronounce a candidate dead, based on Poll A. The next day, Poll B resurrects her, and you get to explain that. Oh for the leisurely days of monthly journalism.Yesterday,
The Capitol was rife with rumors yesterday, one a revival of the persistent story that Strayhorn’s trial lawyer supporters were meeting to decide whether to persuade her to get out of the race and endorse Bell. Like all good rumors, this one had some specific information, such as where the
Suppose you are Secretary of State Roger Williams, Texas’s chief elections officer. As early voting is about to begin, three universities in San Antonio want to be designated as early voting sites. One is the University of Texas at San Antonio, with 28,000 students. One is Trinity University, with around
The latest SurveyUSA poll in the governor’s race shows Bell pulling away from Strayhorn to make the governor’s race a two-person contest. This is the matchup Rick Perry wanted. What’s that old saying? Something about, Be careful what you wish for.Here are the results (466 likely voters, margin of error
I came across this quote from a Democratic pollster on the Web site politicalwire.com, crediting another Web site, pollster.com. It neatly summarizes the race for the House of Representatives and suggests that any celebrating by the Democrats about taking over the House is premature:“There’s a big anti-Republican wave out
One of the perils of serving in Congress is that members lose touch with their constituents. They get arrogant. They forget–pardon me for being trite and idealistic; I know it’s unworthy of a member of the media–that they work for the people. Take the four congressmen who represent the Austin
