Have countless people over the past two decades prematurely predicted the imminent victory of Democrats in Texas? Yes. Is it possible that some people are making the same mistake today? Also yes.

2002

“[Texas] never was a Republican state. It’s just a Bush state.” —Former Democratic Texas comptroller
John Sharp

2002

“Over the next decade, a Democratic presidential candidate could also win the electoral votes of Georgia, Tennessee, and, yes, even Texas.” —Authors John Judis and Ruy Teixeira

2008

“I don’t know if it’s four years or eight years off, but down the road, Texas will be a presidential
battleground.” —Barack Obama’s Latino outreach official, Cuauhtémoc Figueroa

2008

“Texas is ready to turn blue.” —Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean

2010

“Texas Dems are presenting the biggest challenge the state’s GOP has faced in decades. . . . They even have a shot at unseating GOP governor Rick Perry.” —Journalist Suzy Khimm

2010

“If I were Republican, I’d be worried.” —Texas Democratic political consultant Harold Cook

2012

“Four years from now, Texas is going to be a so-called blue state.” —Former Florida governor Jeb Bush

2013

“Very soon, this state is going to turn blue.” —Texas Democratic Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa

2013

“Do I think we can turn Texas in four years? Absolutely.” —Democratic Houston mayor Annise Parker

2013

“I’m very optimistic about [Wendy Davis] upsetting Greg Abbott. . . . Independent and moderate Republicans in Texas have had enough of tea party Republicans.” —Texas congressman Joaquin Castro (Davis went on to lose by 20 percentage points)

2020

“Hell yes.” —Texas Democratic Party executive director Manny Garcia in 2020, answering the question “Is this the year Texas turns blue?”

 

Compiled by Katie Kelton, Jeff Salamon, and Forrest Wilder.

This article originally appeared in the November 2020 issue of Texas Monthly with the headline “Stop Me if You’ve Heard This One Before.” Subscribe today.