Public policy polling

Willful ignorance: the GOP’s Hispanic problem

Oct 5, 2011 By Paul Burka

From Public Policy Polling: There’s been a lot of discussion in the last week about the role of the Hispanic vote in next year’s election.  Here’s the bottom line on our polling: Obama’s approval numbers with Hispanics are down. And because of that Obama’s winning margins with Hispanics would…

The case against Public Policy Polling

Jun 23, 2010 By Paul Burka

A Perry supporter points out that in the last PPP poll before the March 2 Republican primary, PPP had the race at Perry 40%, Hutchison 31%, Medina 20%, and said the race was headed for a runoff. Perry, of course, won without a runoff. If you put this…

Public Policy Polling sees Hispanic shift in Texas

Jun 23, 2010 By Paul Burka

From the PPP Web site: Our poll of the Texas Governor's race this week is another data point indicating possible backlash for Republican candidates this fall in the wake of the Arizona immigration law. When we polled the race in February Rick Perry led Bill White by 6 points. The race is tied now, and the movement since the previous poll has come completely with Hispanic voters. With white voters Perry led 54-35 then and leads 55-35 now. With black voters White led 81-12 then and leads 70-7 now. But with Hispanics Perry has gone from leading 53-41 in February to now trailing 55-21. And it's not that the sample of Hispanic voters we interviewed for this poll was somehow fundamentally different from the previous one- Barack Obama's approval with them on this poll was 49% compared to 47% on the previous Texas poll. Hispanics moving toward Democratic candidates since the Arizona immigration bill was signed is becoming a trend in our polling of western states. Previous races where we polled before and after the signing of the immigration bill showed Rodney Glassman going from a 17 point deficit against John McCain with Hispanics to a 17 point lead, Michael Bennet going from a 12 point lead to a 21 point lead against Jane Norton with them, and Terry Goddard going from a 20 point lead to a 46 point lead with them. There's no doubt the immigration bill is popular nationally. But if it causes Hispanics to change their voting behavior without a parallel shift among whites then it's going to end up playing to Democratic advantage this fall. It's much more important to look at how Hispanic voters in states with large Hispanic populations are reacting than it is to look at the national numbers, at least as it pertains to this fall's election.

Public Policy Polling: White, Perry tied at 43% (Updated)

Jun 22, 2010 By Paul Burka

Here is the writeup by PPP: One of the biggest questions about the 2010 election cycle, which we still don't really know the answer to, is whether it will be solely an anti-Democratic year or more broadly an anti-incumbent year. Our newest Texas poll would seem to suggest voter fatigue toward long serving politicians in both parties- Republican Governor Rick Perry is now tied at 43 with Democratic challenger Bill White. Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread. In almost every race in the country right now Republican voters are more unified around their candidates than Democrats are and independents are leaning toward the GOP. Texas is running against the national grain on both of those counts- White is winning 15% of Republicans while Perry gets just 10% of Democrats and White also has a 42-36 advantage with independent voters. Things look promising for White but Texas is still a conservative state where Barack Obama is exceedingly unpopular and that could end up proving to be too much for him to overcome. It may end up that White is the right candidate just running in the wrong cycle. But for now this looks like a surprisingly strong opportunity for Democrats and a race that could certainly end up as one of the most closely watched in the country. * * * * The key numbers here are the Perry job disapproval rates. A couple of days ago, I noted Perry's "strong disapproval" rate in the latest Rasmussen poll. PPP's numbers are much worse for Perry. Rasmussen made the point that strong approval and disapproval are more important at this stage of a campaign than the overall numbers. But 49% is off the charts bad for Perry. Is it believable? My answer would be "somewhat." Perry has never gotten a lot of respect. He is a polarizing figure. The only real hope White has in this race is that the electorate will come down with a bad case of Perry fatigue.

Generic congressional ballot: D’s +2

Jun 12, 2010 By Paul Burka

This is from a Public Policy Polling survey: For the first time since December PPP finds Democrats leading on the generic Congressional ballot, albeit by the insignificant margin of 43-41. The biggest reason for the shift is that the party is becoming more unified. Democratic voters are planning…

New Public Policy Polling survey: 40/30/20 model

Feb 23, 2010 By Paul Burka

Perry 40% (39%) Hutchison 31% (28%) Medina 20% (24%) (numbers in parentheses = PPP 2/9 poll) N = 400 likely Republican primary voters MOE = +/- 4.9% These numbers seem intuitively correct. They suggest that Perry and Hutchison have beaten each other up enough that both are more or less…

Henson: PPP poll “within the range of plausibility”

Feb 9, 2010 By Paul Burka

I spoke with Jim Henson, co-founder of the University of Texas poll, and he said that the PPP poll was “within the range of plausibility.” Henson has charted all the polls in this race, and the PPP poll was not an outlier. He expects to have a UT/Texas Tribune poll…


Feb 9, 2010 By Paul Burka

Public Policy Polling has the governor’s race as a 15-point spread from top to bottom: Perry 39% (sound familiar?) Hutchison 28% Medina 24% Undecided 10% Rasmussen’s most recent poll: Perry 44% Hutchison 29% Medina 16% Anything can happen now. Medina’s support has grown by 50% since the Rasmussen poll even…