Rasmussen: Perry 29, Romney 18, Bachmann 13

Aug 17, 2011 By Paul Burka

A phenomenal showing by Perry, who has done nothing more than announce his candidacy and press the flesh in three venues. The impending battle for Tea Party support between Perry and Bachmann may already be over. Romney has been running for four years and is hardly any better off than…

Rasmussen: Perry 50%, White 41%

Jul 15, 2010 By Paul Burka

The previous poll was 48-40, so very little change. Curiously, Rasmussen describes Perry’s lead as “modest.” Since the MOE is +/- 4./5%, Perry’s nine-point edge is the largest possible advantage that is still within the margin of error. Perhaps Rasmussen is downplaying Perry’s lead as a reaction to recent criticism…

Rasmussen: Perry 48%, White 40%

Jun 18, 2010 By Paul Burka

Only 8% are undecided, with 5% preferring some other candidate. As with all Rasmussen polls, this one was an automated-response telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted on a single day (June 16). The margin of error is is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Readers are probably familiar by now with the charge, leveled mostly by Democrats but also by some polling analysts, that Rasmussen's polls lean toward producing a "Democratic doom scenario" early in a campaign, when they can impact public perceptions, but as an election draws closer, they fall more into line with other polling. On election day 2008, Rasmussen nailed the presidential election results in Texas. For more on this subject, scroll down to yesterday's post, "Washington Post on the Rasmussen controversy." Some other numbers from the poll:

The Rasmussen effect

Jun 7, 2010 By Paul Burka

There has been considerable discussion on this site about the accuracy of Rasmussen polls, particularly in the Kentucky Senate race. Rasmussen had Rand Paul +25 over Democrat Jack Conway. This was a significant outlier. Last week pollster.com had an article about Rasmussen polls, which I am going to…

Rasmussen: Republican support drops

May 5, 2010 By Paul Burka

I missed this last week; it’s dated May 1. In April, the number of adults not affiliated with either major party increased by 1.6 percentage points, while the number identifying themselves as Republicans decreased 1.3 percentage points. This marks the lowest level for Republicans since July 2008. The…

The Rasmussen Poll: Perry 48, White 44

Apr 20, 2010 By Paul Burka

The previous poll showed Perry ahead 49-43. This one shows him ahead 48-44. The difference has no significance at this stage of the race. Perry is still under 50%, but very close. Remember, Perry didn’t break 50% in the primary until election day. The most interesting thing about the poll…


Feb 9, 2010 By Paul Burka

Public Policy Polling has the governor’s race as a 15-point spread from top to bottom: Perry 39% (sound familiar?) Hutchison 28% Medina 24% Undecided 10% Rasmussen’s most recent poll: Perry 44% Hutchison 29% Medina 16% Anything can happen now. Medina’s support has grown by 50% since the Rasmussen poll even…

Good news for Hutchison (just kidding)

Nov 13, 2009 By Paul Burka

Yes, good news: She’s only down by 11 points in today’s Rasmussen poll, compared to 12 points in the recent UT/Texas Tribune poll. Perry, meanwhile, is only four points (the same number Medina is getting) short of 50%. The temptation is to say that the race is over, but I’m…