UT poll

UT/Tribune Poll: Perry +9

May 23, 2010 By Paul Burka

At least it’s better than the Rasmussen poll. The numbers: Perry 44% White 35% Undecided 15% Someone else 7% If you were trying to put a good face on the results for White, you would say (1) Perry is under 50%; (2) 22%, more than 1 voter in 5, are…

UT Poll: Perry 36, Hutchison 24

Jul 9, 2009 By Paul Burka

Perry’s twelve-point lead is the same as his advantage in last month’s Texas Lyceum poll, which was conducted by the same pollsters — Perry 33, Hutchison 21. Both that poll and this one showed that a large number of voters were undecided or preferred someone else. The Democratic primary results,…

The UT Internet Poll (again)

Mar 23, 2009 By Paul Burka

This is my response to the post, below, of the government professors who operate the UT Poll. I have no desire to get into a verbal wrestling match with Professors Henson and Shaw. I have spoken to both of them, in person and by telephone, and I respect their work and what they are trying to accomplish. They are entitled to run a poll the way the want to run it, and I am entitled to give my opinion of its worth. 1. In my opinion, Internet polling is not a proven methodology. In particular, Zogby's Internet polls are useless. There are too many things about Internet polling that are eccentric. Would you put more faith in a poll of registered voters if you determined a person's status from an Internet interview or from a voter registration list? Internet polling does not use interviews. It locates participants. 2. I did not write about the part of the poll that involved the U.S. Senate race. The poll presented participants with brief biographies of selected candidates. How in the world could the pollsters control for bias? If this is not a push poll, it is certainly a cousin.

Perry camp touts UT poll results to national GOP activists, media–but is the methodology accurate?

Mar 21, 2009 By Paul Burka

The following e-mail went out to Republican activists, consultants, and Washington media types over the name of Perry campaign guru Dave Carney. Among the recipients were consultant Arthur Finkelstein, representatives of the Club for Growth, Washington Post columnist Chris Cizzilla, and prominent Patton Boggs attorney Benjamin Ginsberg, who represented the Bush campaign in legal maneuvering over the Florida recount in 2000. Subject: Hutchison Team Quiet About New Poll The only thing positive that the Hutchison campaign has had to talk about since getting in the Governor's race last year has been public poll numbers showing her with a sizable lead. (Like many of the elite they confuse popularity with electability.) Well today that came to an end and not surprisingly the Hutchison campaign has gone silent. Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News yesterday reported, "Asked who they'd vote for it the primary were today, 36 percent of registered likely GOP voters said Hutchison, 30 percent for Perry. A quarter say they remain undecided -- a huge number. The survey was conducted Feb. 24-March 6. The margin of error is 5.7 percent -- which means the results are effectively a tossup. The poll was conducted by the Department of Government and the Texas Politics project at UT. That is in sharp contrast to the polls showing her with a 25 point lead before she announced her candidacy. This follows her anemic fundraising performance during the first reporting period of the campaign where she raised less then $32,000. In contrast over the same time period Governor Perry raised more than $1,000,000. Couple all that with these two articles that came out today and it’s been a bad first few months for Senator Hutchison's fledging campaign. [end of release] Click here for the link to the first article and here for the link to the second. A couple of comments: