The Baselice Poll
It’s hardly worth looking at Texas polling. The only suspense is how big the Republican margin is going to be. According to Baselice, it’s 16 points. [Romney 54, Obama 38]. That is a huge differential. Not so long ago it was 9. The Cruz-Sadler differential is even worse [Cruz 48, Sadler 26].
The lesson here is that the worst thing that can happen to the state Democratic Party, or what’s left of it, is to have an unpopular Democratic president in the White House. The Democratic brand is ruined in Texas. The last Democrat to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and he was defeated in the Reagan landslide of 1980.
A few numbers in the Baselice poll are worth looking at. In the Senate race, each candidate is doing well with his own base:
D – Sadler 80%
R – Cruz 89%
Among Hispanics, a group that is crucial to Obama’s reelection, the numbers in Texas are a far cry from Obama’s 70%+ nationally:
What does this tell us? Texas Hispanics are more conservative than Hispanics in other Southwestern states (CA, CO, NM, AZ).
Among women voters, Obama has a 50% – 41% lead. That, at least, is consistent with national trends. (Yes, I know that recent polling shows that Romney has closed the gender gap.)
The disparity between the two parties is so great that it is hardly worth the effort it takes to do a poll.