From the Cook Political Report:
On December 21, the Census Bureau will fulfill its constitutional mandate and release its highly anticipated official state population totals and the resulting allotment of House seats and Electoral College votes for the next decade.
Here are some early projections that I have taken from the report:
Gainers: Georgia, Nevada, Utah, +1 seat each
Losers: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, -1 seat each
Big losers: Ohio, -2 seats, New York, -1 or -2
Big winners: Texas, +3 seats, possibly +4; Florida and Arizona, +1 or +2 seats each
On the bubble: South Carolina, Washington, California, North Carolina are potentially +1; Minnesota and Illinois are potentially -1
The Cook report speculates that Solomon Ortiz’s former district could be carved up to make 2 GOP seats. It also speculates that a 70% Hispanic district could be drawn in West Dallas County.
The report contains a list of “the ten states in contention for the ‘last five’ seats in the House. In the order of likelihood: South Carolina, which hasn’t gained a seat in 80 years, followed by Florida, Minnesota, Washington, Texas, New York, California, Arizona, North Carolina, and Illinois. Texas is in the middle, on the +3/+4 bubble.
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The obvious thing that stands out here is that the Rust Belt continues to lose population, and the Sunbelt continues to gain. This clearly advantages Republicans. Texas, Florida, South Carolina, are solid red states. Arizona looks pretty red too. The Democrats gave back most of their gains in the South from the previous two election cycles.