The Velasquez Institute based its findings on exit polls of 440 respondents conducted in 32 selected precincts across the state.
As much as I respect the Velasquez Institute's work over the years, I don't believe these numbers. Perry campaigned hard in the Valley. He had the support of a number of (presumably) Democratic mayors--mayor being a nonpartisan office in this state. Democratic sheriffs appeared on his TV commercials. One of the few major pre-election polls that released its cross-tabs showed Perry with 42% of the Hispanic vote.
At the same time that Perry was getting, supposedly, 13.9% of the Hispanic vote, the Velasquez Institute exit polls produced these results in the Senate race:
So Hutchison ran FORTY points better than Perry among Hispanics? I don't believe it.
Mike Baselice, Perry's pollster, sent me the CNN/AP exit poll data for Texas. It was based on 2,090 respondents statewide. Here is what it showed:
This looks much more like it.
Is there any way to explain the discrepancy between WVI and CNN/AP? The only thing I can think of is that the precinct selection by WVI is somehow off the mark. If WVI is only looking at barrio precincts--a criticism that was raised in 04 when WVI had to raise its original lowball estimate of Hispanic support for Bush--then the Institute is missing the movement of more-affluent Hispanics to the suburbs. And those voters are more likely to vote for Perry than residents of urban neighborhoods.
- 1 week