How Lehrmann won
Mon April 19, 2010 5:43 pm

I have been looking at the voting numbers in the race for Supreme Court, Place 3, in which Lehrmann defeated Green. This was a classic race of New Texas versus Old Texas, rural versus urban and suburban. Green carried 149 counties to Lehrmann’s 83. (Yes, I know. This does not add up to 254. The reason is that three counties ended in ties and nineteen did not report any votes. I assume that they did not hold Republican primaries.) But of the 22 counties that I arbitrarily selected as the most important, Lehrmann carried 16, Green only 6. Many of these counties were in the Metroplex, Lehrmann’s base.

(Counties won by Green are in capital letters)

Bexar – Lehrmann 9,619, Green 7,825
Brazos – Lehrmann 6,208, Green 3,497
Brazoria – Lehrmann 2,037, Green 1,612
Collin – Lehrmann 8,756, Green 7,491
Dallas – Lehrmann 7,977, Green 4,248
Denton – Lehrmann 4,974, Green 3,700
Ellis – Lehrmann 2,828, Green, 1,394
Hunt – Lehrmann 1,401, Green 1,259
FORT BEND – Green 5,370, Lehrmann 5,177
HARRIS – Green 22,934, Lehrmann 17,783
Kaufman – Lehrmann, 2,072, Green 1,862
[I should point out here that Hunt, Kaufman, and Fort Bend are suburban in location but rural in character, which could explain why these counties were closer than some of the others.]
Lubbock – Lehrmann 10,964, Green 7,522
McLennan – Lehrmann 5,713, Green 3,271
MONTGOMERY – Green 4,670, Lehrmann 4,617
NUECES – Green 4,607, Lehrmann 2,470 [Green did will throughout South Texas, carrying Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, and El Paso counties, though the turnouts were very small.]
Rockwall – Lehrmann 2,372, Green 1,272
PARKER – Green 1,642, Lehrmann1283
Tarrant – Lehrmann 12,706, Green 8,140
SMITH – Green 1,271, Lehrmann 388 [worth noting only because Green won by a 3 to 1 margin here in a race that was close across the rest of the state]
Travis – Lehrmann 7,517, Green 5,979
Williamson – Lehrmann 5,429, Green 4,531

Rural Texas went heavily for Green, but I did find it interesting which counties bucked the trend. It was the more trendy spots – Kerrville, Frederickburg, Burnet, LaGrange, Bellville, Brenham, Aransas County, Midland but not Odessa.

That Green ran so well despite losing heavily in North Texas and the I-35 corridor indicates that there are still a lot of votes in rural Texas. He lost the race by only 12,300+ votes out of 333,385. But the real problem was Green’s stronghold of Harris County. If the Harris County turnout had equaled the statewide average (2.55%), instead of languishing at 2.15%, Green would have picked up another 13,000 or so votes—enough to win the race.

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