How Lehrmann won

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I have been looking at the voting numbers in the race for Supreme Court, Place 3, in which Lehrmann defeated Green. This was a classic race of New Texas versus Old Texas, rural versus urban and suburban. Green carried 149 counties to Lehrmann’s 83. (Yes, I know. This does not add up to 254. The reason is that three counties ended in ties and nineteen did not report any votes. I assume that they did not hold Republican primaries.) But of the 22 counties that I arbitrarily selected as the most important, Lehrmann carried 16, Green only 6. Many of these counties were in the Metroplex, Lehrmann’s base. (Counties won by Green are in capital letters) Bexar – Lehrmann 9,619, Green 7,825 Brazos – Lehrmann 6,208, Green 3,497 Brazoria – Lehrmann 2,037, Green 1,612 Collin – Lehrmann 8,756, Green 7,491 Dallas – Lehrmann 7,977, Green 4,248 Denton – Lehrmann 4,974, Green 3,700 Ellis – Lehrmann 2,828, Green, 1,394 Hunt – Lehrmann 1,401, Green 1,259 FORT BEND – Green 5,370, Lehrmann 5,177 HARRIS – Green 22,934, Lehrmann 17,783 Kaufman – Lehrmann, 2,072, Green 1,862 [I should point out here that Hunt, Kaufman, and Fort Bend are suburban in location but rural in character, which could explain why these counties were closer than some of the others.] Lubbock – Lehrmann 10,964, Green 7,522 McLennan – Lehrmann 5,713, Green 3,271 MONTGOMERY – Green 4,670, Lehrmann 4,617 NUECES – Green 4,607, Lehrmann 2,470 [Green did will throughout South Texas, carrying Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, and El Paso counties, though the turnouts were very small.] Rockwall – Lehrmann 2,372, Green 1,272 PARKER – Green 1,642, Lehrmann1283 Tarrant – Lehrmann 12,706, Green 8,140 SMITH – Green 1,271, Lehrmann 388 [worth noting only because Green won by a 3 to 1 margin here in a race that was close across the rest of the state] Travis – Lehrmann 7,517, Green 5,979 Williamson – Lehrmann 5,429, Green 4,531 Rural Texas went heavily for Green, but I did find it interesting which counties bucked the trend. It was the more trendy spots – Kerrville, Frederickburg, Burnet, LaGrange, Bellville, Brenham, Aransas County, Midland but not Odessa. That Green ran so well despite losing heavily in North Texas and the I-35 corridor indicates that there are still a lot of votes in rural Texas. He lost the race by only 12,300+ votes out of 333,385. But the real problem was Green’s stronghold of Harris County. If the Harris County turnout had equaled the statewide average (2.55%), instead of languishing at 2.15%, Green would have picked up another 13,000 or so votes—enough to win the race.

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