It's over
Tue October 21, 2008 11:05 am

In an attempt to avoid being the last political writer in America to declare that Obama will win the presidency, I'm going to call the race for the Democratic nominee. In a nutshell, here's why: His double-digit lead in nineteen of the twenty blue states John Kerry carried in 2004 is so overwhelming that McCain cannot possibly overtake him in any of these. The only one that is in single digits is New Hampshire, where Obama has a 7 point lead.

John Kerry won 251 electoral votes in 2004. These are the states that he carried, with the number of electoral votes in parentheses and Obama's current lead:

Maine (4) 53-38
New Hampshire (4) 50-43
Vermont (3) 60-36
Massachusetts (12) 61-35
Rhode Island (4) 48-26
Connecticut (7) 56-39
New York (31) 61-34
New Jersey (15) 53-41
Pennsylvania (21) 52-40
Delaware (3) 56-40
Maryland (10) 57-38
Washington, D.C. (3) 82-13
Michigan (17) 55-39
Illinois (21) 56-39
Wisconsin (10) 51-41
Minnesota (10) 52-41
Washington (11) 56-40
Oregon (7) 55-41
California (55) 58-38
Hawaii (4) 68-27

In addition to the base Kerry vote in 2004, Obama has double-digit leads in two states won by Bush that year:

Iowa (7) 54-41
New Mexico (5) 54-44

This brings Obama's total to 263.

In addition, Obama is contesting two new swing states that were carried by Bush in 2004:

Colorado (9) 51-46
Virginia (14) 51-44

If Obama carries either of these states -- and McCain has pulled out of Colorado -- he is over the 270 mark and is he president-elect.

We don't even have to consider what happens in the battleground states of Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), and Nevada (5). McCain can win them all, and it makes no difference.

The McCain camp has decided to try to win Pennsylvania (Obama +12). But as the Philadelphia Inquirer has pointed out, McCain is trailing by double digits; Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.2 million, Obama is outspending McCain by "several orders of magnitude"; and Democrats have a major organizational advantage here.

It's over.

More Texas Monthly

Loading, please wait...

Most Read

  • Viewed
  • Past:
  • 1 week