New Public Policy Polling survey: 40/30/20 model
Tue February 23, 2010 11:24 am

Perry 40% (39%)
Hutchison 31% (28%)
Medina 20% (24%)

(numbers in parentheses = PPP 2/9 poll)

N = 400 likely Republican primary voters
MOE = +/- 4.9%

These numbers seem intuitively correct. They suggest that Perry and Hutchison have beaten each other up enough that both are more or less stuck. However, Hutchison's three-point gain has brought her within single digits of Perry. Medina's four-point slippage, due entirely to self-sabotage, seems to have gone +3 to Hutchison, +1 to Perry. This is about what you would expect: 3 to 1 against the incumbent. Perry cannot be happy about these numbers. He hasn't put her away yet. Is it possible that there are enough normal people in Texas -- people who don't think that the Tenth Amendment, nullification, and secession are the most important issues facing Texas -- to make a race out of this?

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