Perry’s plans

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Perry has been in the news this week, mainly about discussions of his future plans: Fox News ran a story on Monday, which begins:

The governor and his wife, Anita Perry, in their first interview since Perry dropped out of the Republican presidential race, told Fox News that they regret not jumping into the race sooner, and Anita Perry hopes her husband will decide to run again.
Later that day, the Statesman‘s Jason Embry weighed in with this story:
Gov. Rick Perry, in his first speech since ending his presidential campaign almost three weeks ago, vowed Monday night to remain active in the national debate over the country’s future and to fight tax increases back home. “I’m not slipping off into the sunset,” Perry told hundreds of Republicans at a fundraiser for the Williamson County GOP. “We’ve got plenty of work to do right here in the state of Texas.”

So what is Perry likely to do? I think the answer is that he will not run for reelection as governor in 2014, but he will run for president in 2016 if the Republicans don’t recapture the White House in November. The reason for the former is that he can’t afford to take the chance he could lose. Perry has little to gain from running and winning, but he has a lot to lose from running and losing. And, based on polling after Perry dropped out of the presidential race, his chance of losing is not insignificant. It is possible that Abbott would challenge him–the attorney general does have $12 million in the bank–but it is more likely that Perry will tell Abbott that he isn’t running, giving him a head start on the field.

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