The Hillary Factor
A Republican consultant copied me on an e-mail he sent to a well known national political writer about Hillary Clinton’s likely effect on the Democratic ticket in Texas. Here are the points he made (I have edited the order, not the wording):
1. Hillary’s relatively unpopularity translates into a ballot test that is 4 to
5 points lower than the generic D vs. R vote.
2. Among partisans of both sides it is pretty clear she does well among Ds and poorly among Rs. It is her negatives among independents that are troubling for her. They are real and they will have some impact.
3. If the race were held today, there would be a big Hillary downballot drag. That will take tens of millions and good, smart tactics to change.
4. She won’t spend any money in states where she can’t win. I don’t see the real media push anywhere in the South, except Florida.