I’ve been watching the Australian Open on ESPN, and it bears some resemblance to the Florida primary. We’re down to the semifinals now. In the upper bracket, it’s McCain vs. Romney to see who gets to play in the finals. Rudy is the Andy Roddick (sorry, Andy) of this bunch — so promising at the start of his career but keeps losing in the early rounds. In the lower bracket, it’s Clinton vs. Obama. Clinton is Federer, the machine that just keeps hammering away. Obama is Nadal, full of heart and spirit and good enough to win a tournament every once in a while, on the right surface, like Iowa. Edwards is, well, Vince Spadea, who suffered through a record 21-match losing streak.

A Miami Herald poll (1/20-1/22) shows McCain leading at 25%, Romney at 23%, and Giuliani tied for third with Huckabee at 15%. One of the four semifinalists is going to win the big tournament in November.