A new survey found Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz continues to lead Democrat Beto O’Rourke in this year’s election among likely voters, but there are troubling signs for Cruz. The poll by Crosswind Media and Public Relations found 15 percent of the self-identified Republicans surveyed are willing to vote for O’Rourke, and so, too, are an equal percentage of respondents who described themselves as conservative.
Overall, Cruz is leading O’Rourke 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points—making the race a statistical tie.
“Texans are in for a nail-biter that has national implications,” Crosswind CEO Thomas Graham said in a statement that accompanied the survey results. “O’Rourke is showing surprisingly strong support in traditionally red-state Texas, and Cruz has the edge in organization at this point, but clearly O’Rourke is gaining ground.”
Crosswinds is a national public relations firm based in Austin and leans Republican. Some of the past Crosswind Texas Pulse polls can be found here.
This is the first poll I’ve seen where O’Rourke had high name recognition. In past surveys, somewhere between 25 and 38 percent of the voters polled did not know enough to have an opinion of him. That was down to 7 percent in this survey. But while 50 percent of the registered voters have a positive view of O’Rourke, his negatives are now up to 38 percent.
As we noted in an earlier post—Some People Think Ted Cruz Is a Jerk. Is It Enough to Make Him Lose?—Cruz is having difficulty with the likability factor. In the Crosswind survey, 51 percent of those surveyed viewed him positively, while 45 percent held an unfavorable view of him. Among likely voters who did not state a party affiliation, 52 percent said they had a negative view of Cruz.
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott is leading former Democratic Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 52 percent to 39 percent. Abbott even has 38 percent support among Hispanic respondents.