Why is Bill White running for Senate?
Aside from the obvious — he wants to go to Washington — I can’t think of a good reason to run for Senate instead of governor.
As things now stand, Hutchison will probably resign her seat in the fall. I believe that Perry will appoint either Dewhurst or Abbott. Michael Williams would be an interesting choice, but Dewhurst or Abbott should be able to hold the seat in a special election, which would take place in May. Williams would not be a sure thing.
Can White defeat either Dewhurst or Abbott in a special election (no primary, just the top two vote-getters in a runoff)? I don’t see it. Either Dewhurst or Abbott will be able to raise a lot of money. Dewhurst can put his own money into the race. Abbot has been a very successful fundraiser. White can spend personal money as well, but he will be facing an incumbent appointee who has been able to raise money in Washington as an incumbent for six or seven months. Democrats generally do not turn out for special elections as well as Republicans do. That is not good for White either.
On the other hand, suppose that White runs for governor. The Republican nominee will be the survivor of a brutal primary. If the nominee is Rick Perry, he is vulnerable in a general election context. And if it is Hutchison, well, she looked invincible when the first polls came out, but she doesn’t look so strong today. Democrats will be excited about the chance to win a statewide election for the first time since 1994. If White wants to win, he should run for governor.
Tagged: bill white, david dewhurst, greg abbott, senate.
Ware V. Wendell says:
Well, he’s said he’s running for Senate and raised money under that proposition. In Texas, your word is your bond.
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Buck says:
You’re assuming that the appointee (Abbott/Dewhurst) will be the only Republican running in the special.
That does not appear to be the case.
Didn’t Hutchison get elected by beating Barton first and then Krueger?
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el_longhorn says:
Totally agree that White should run for Governor. He will have limited impact as a US Senator, but would be a game changer as Governor.
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texxasredd says:
Why do you harp on and on about KBH resigning her Senate seat to run for Governor? She doesn’t have to. Other than being just being a plain, stupid thing to do, why should she? She could thwart all their plans for political advancement and stay in the Senate. Then, as Governor, she can appoint her own replacement.
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Paul Burka Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
I’m only harping because she herself has said she would resign late in 2009. She said that when she established her exploratory candidacy in December 2008.
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Anonymous says:
Lots of Ds have problems with statewide name recognition. Bill White is a big name in Houston, but not many other places. So he may fail in the special election, but he’ll have the added benefit of that campaign’s publicity and his own name being spread around when the “real” election comes around.
He may not win this time, but Bill has some resolve that will keep him going. He’s certainly not gonna fall off the political map next May if it doesn’t go his way.
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Prince Royal says:
To answer your question, Paul, I think that as Mayor White started making overtures for governor, he encountered a number of his Houston supporters who also like Kay Bailey. To get consolidate his base, he went for the open senate seat.
If I were Bill White, my thinking is this: Run against Rick Perry and I beat him. If KBH wins the primary, I may not be able to beat her. If I raise money for Senate and she does not vacate the senate and there is no race, I can transfer my money over and run for Governor.
In a special election, White enters with enormous popularity in the largest voter section of Texas (Houston). They have almost 25% of the vote. In a special, they will come out stronger for a home town boy than Dallas will if they don’t have one of their own in the race.
Also, do NOT underestimate Bill White’s ability to raise money. Abbott CANNOT transfer their money into a senate race so the $9 million Abbott is sitting on only helps in running for Lt Gov. Dewherst is not going to motivate people in his own party to vote not to mention to donate. NEITHER of them have raised money with $2400 limits. They’ve received HUGE donations from individual donors but do not have the grassroots up and running for a senate race. And, by their inactivity, they have lost ground in Houston which is where they originally came from.
texxasredd, Paul isn’t “harping” on anything. She has said (and her people have said) that she will resign her senate seat to run for Governor. No one is saying she should, only that she has said that she will.
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captain obvious says:
You’re not giving Michael Williams his due. It isn’t all about fundraising Paul. Also, Williams is “skipping” some seats (Comptroller, AG, LG, etc.). He’s not hopping from lilly pad to lilly pad. Nothing says he wouldn’t be able to raise what he needs to raise to hold this seat. Donors give to the office, not just the candidate. And when was the last time a D outraised (not outspent, outraised) an R statewide in Texas? More than a decade. The appointee will have no trouble raising what they need to hold this seat.
And if Perry is making the appointment in the midst of a hard-fought Primary, won’t he want to appoint someone who will excite his voters and campaign with/for him? I don’t see Abbott and Dewhurst doing either. Williams will definitely do both.
RE: Bill White, he’s a regional candidate, not much more than a Congressman. He will be just another tombstone in the graveyard of regional candidates who vied for the Senate.
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texun Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
When was the last time somebody catapulted into a higher office from the Texas Railroad Commission?
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Anonymous Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Prior to the election of Barack Obama, when was the last time a sitting senator was elected president?
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Pat Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
JFK in 1960 and Harding in 1920 were the only two sitting Senators elected to the Presidency. That is, until Obama in 2008.
Paul Burka Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Strayhorn moved up to comptroller.
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Texas Democrat Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Beauford Jester was the ONLY one who went from the Texas Railroad Commission to the Governor’s Mansion in 1946, winning reelection in 1948.
PS: Perry will WIN the GOP primary once the Religious Right comes out in massive droves non-stop, heck they control like 90 percent of the Texas GOP right now.
Dewhurst will either stay for a 3rd term as Lieutenant Governor (powerful job) or seek the Senate seat regardless what Abbott does.
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John Robert BEHRMAN says:
Bill White would make an excellent Lt. Governor. That is a lifetime, terminal job. But, it is a good one that he could do well, better than his role-model, Bill Hobby, maybe.
In Hobby’s day the job involved negotiating deals among the Northern and Southern Whigs. It would be different today, as the Senate is — you may have noticed — highly polarized. Still, it is a deal culture, not an example of responsible, two-party government.
Governor of Texas is more of a “victory lap” for a life-long politico winding down or for a would-be Presidential nominee working up. It is not really an executive, legislative, or judicial job. It is like Queen of England. One presides lightly but effectively over some traditions and some otherwise dysfunctional power-centers.
John Connelly was winding down and seeking higher office at the same time, but he turned out to be a much better politico than a nominee.
The Governor has to lead one of the two political parties today. The Lt. Governor does not.
And, Bill White does not seem to actually think much of either one. Neither did Bill Hobby. But, disdain can lead to fairness. It was an advantage to Bill Hobby in the office of Lt. Governor, well, under our state constitution.
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anon says:
Off subject, but how badly does Rob Johnson’s departure hurt Dewhurst?
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Paul Burka Reply:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
I think it hurts him, particularly if Dewhurst runs for Senate. Who can he get to run that campaign who is as good as Johnson? Now, if he is running for reelection as light gov, I don’t see much of a problem.
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Anonymous says:
To answer your question, KBH is unbeatable in the current Texas political climate. (Yes, she will be the Republican nominee, and the trash campaign won’t change the ultimate outcome of either the primary or general elections. Not my preference by the way…just what’s gonna happen. Mark it down. It’s preordained.)
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bluebabe says:
Who is Bill White? Really, no one west or north of Austin knows who he is.
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Paul Burka says:
That’s OK. Not many people live north or west of Austin.
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anonymous says:
Bill White would do less harm out of Texas than within. Send him to Washington.
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also anonymous says:
I think Prince Royal’s comment from yesterday afternoon is largely correct – there is an overlap in White and Hutchison supporters. And, while I don’t know this directly, it would not surprise me to learn that White and Hutchison are politically sympatico. She’s no Dem, but she’s no screaming right winger. He’s no Repub, but he’ll never be viewed as a fringe liberal.
I’d wager that White’s preference is governor, but he recognizes that if KBH survives the primary, her win is as close to inevitable as these things come. He’s smart enough to know he doesn’t have her name ID. In the end, if she’s the Republican nominee for Governor and he’s the Democratic nominee for Senator they’re both going to be relying on their crossover appeal to pull support away from their opponents. In other words, while they will be running on opposite tickets, they’ll actually be in the same political coalition.
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Cow Droppings Reply:
July 14th, 2009 at 9:29 am
The key link here is Ben Barnes. Barnes supports Hutchison, and worked to clear White from the Democrat field. In exchange Barnes helps White connect with Washington folks and raise money. People forget Barnes is the go-to-guy in Texas for Washington Dems. Hutchison, to the extent she is even capable of feeling gratitude, is grateful White announced for Senate and therefore speaks more to him than any aspiring Republicans.
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Ed says:
Paul,
Has anyone considered that Perry might do something really crazy for the right wing if he gets to tap a Sen while running? Something like…Dan Patrick??? Wow, I’ve just scared myself.
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insider. sorta. says:
Abbott is not running for Senate…he’s indicated he will run for Lt. Guv (with or without Dew as an opponent)
The Senate race really does come down to Dew or M.Williams. Roger siphons votes from Dew, EAJ & Shapiro drop out.
By the way, Hutchison will not resign seat until next yr if she remains in race (her camp’s words)
Lastly, Sharp beats White in primary, hands down. Dems are making the biggest mistake hoping for Bill White…he has so much dirt on him it’s ridiculous
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DL says:
What would a Watson v White primary look like?
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Dukakis in a tank says:
I would put my money on White simply because of the size of his political base (Houston) compared to Watson’s (Austin). With Houston comes more people and more money.
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The People's Elbow says:
If QR is right, and Perry appoints Dan Patrick, who wouldn’t feel good about that race?
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cyrus Reply:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:31 am
I might not. Whatever we may think of Patrick’s politics, we shouldn’t forget that the guy is a professional communicator, and he’s extended that quality of late by utilizing social networking tools quite competently to engage his constituents and frame issues.
Also, he has a pretty concise message that can be sold to Texas conservatives with whom he is quite popular, and hasn’t been tainted by the corruption and compromises that Perry, Dewhurst and KBH have been exposed to over the last decade. In some ways he’s the standard-bearer and future of the RPT. He basically engineered the R’s agenda in the Senate this session and had Dewhurst by the shorthairs. If he’s not appointed as a Senator, he might be politically wise to make a run at Lt. Gov.
And frankly, I think there’s room for a guy like him in the Guv primary. The Repub’s dissatisfaction with their two highest statewide office-holders is palpable right now. He could blow the whole race wide open if he got in now.
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Up the middle. says:
I think there is truth to the overlap of KBH’s and BW’s base and that might have something to do with why he is in the Senate race. I agree very much with the idea that, “while they will be running on opposite tickets, they’ll actually be in the same political coalition.” I do believe this is true. I think most Texans have shared values and don’t think the tired politics or either party represent them and are looking for a new common ground.
However my guess is Bill White is running for Senate because he believes there is more he can do for Texas from that office. One of Bill Whites political passions is energy policy and he may believe there is more he can do to promote Texas as a renewable energy leader in the United States Senate.
One thing is clear. Bill White campaigns as hard as anyone running for any office this cycle. It is often overlooked that when he ran for mayor in 2003 he entered a race polling at 2%, against two clear front runners. In this race voters will be impressed at how hard Bill White will work to earn their support. I expect we will see a well run, positive campaign about why he wants to earn the trust of and be the Senator for all Texans.
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The People's Elbow says:
I certainly don’t underestimate Patrick’s political abilities. However, as a D, if I could pick my opponent out of the rumored names, it would be Patrick.
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cyrus Reply:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
I would hope that you’d be a D with a clear, immediate and certain value proposition to Texas voters, then, TPE…neither White, Sharp, or Schieffer seems to really stand for anything, except perhaps ‘good government’, or it’s bastard cousin, ‘not so damn controversial’… but those may not have arrived as a marketable commodities down here just yet, and I don’t see them exciting the base enough to get over the hump.
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paulburka Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 9:14 am
I don’t think Perry will choose Patrick, but I wouldn’t underestimate Patrick if he were to choose him.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
However, as a D, if I could pick my opponent out of the rumored names, it would be Patrick.
Even though he has harnessed social networking technology with the skills of a prepubescent girl?
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cyrus Reply:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Does more with them than Watson or Van de Putte or Schieffer do – for what that’s worth.
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domestic politics only says:
Bill White will have no chance outside of Houston especially when he has to stop talking pot holes and hurricanes and begin to speak to partisan issues.. add on the Obama stimulus disaster and massive debt and this is a race that will not be won by any Dem. The R that wins it will have to look and sound good in all 5 corners of the state. My bet is on one of the women to take it.
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paulburka says:
That is the biggest problem for White. National issues work reduce the chance of any Democrat winning the Senate race. State issues enhance the chance of any Democrat winning the governor’s race.
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Texas Democrat says:
Burka, if KBH does resign her Senate seat this fall and Perry appoints either Dewhurst or Abbott to the Senate seat, history also shows that an incumbent appointee to the United States Senate loses whenever they’re up for election on their own (see Krueger in 1993, etc.,)
Bill White says he’s intent on being a United States Senator, but IF the pressure is too much to overcome he maybe convinced to seek the governorship where a NASTY and bloody primary between Perry and KBH on the Republican side will cause folks to be running for the hills because both are going to destroy each other in personal vicious attacks with gay rumors, race-baiting, etc.,
The Democratic field for the Texas Governor’s Mansion is WEAK, so the term-limited Houston Mayor better take a real look at this and let former State Comptroller John Sharp (D) have the Senate race on the Democratic side, who has won 3 statewide elections in the past.
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domestic politics only says:
Perry will not appoint Dewhurst to the vacant senate seat. Dewhurst can’t win and Perry knows it well. Even with self-funding, Dewhurst would be the establishment “old white guy” candidate which is a negative in this political environment (even for R’s) plus he is not a good campaigner. Whoever, Perry appoints will be the person that helps the Perry for Gov. campaign the most – and it ain’t Dewhurst.
Think about who will be running against Perry – he will appoint someone who will help steal votes from KBH demographics.
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cyrus Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Dewhurst is only a liability as an appointment if he has to run in an R primary to keep it. If it’s just him in a special free-for-all, he can play centrist enough to win. He’s beaten Sharp before in a well-financed general. White and Sharp together would split the D vote and Dew won’t lose much to a nut like Michael Williams, who would be the only one not smart enough to drop out if Dew is appointed. If KBH resigns after Sept. 1 and Perry appoints Dew, i’d look for Sharp & White to play rock-paper-scissors, with the loser switching to the Lt. Gov’s race.
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rhino76 says:
Yeah, Dan Patrick manages to take a very divisive and spiteful message and comes off as a populist–and it works.
He would be a tough candidate as U.S. Senator.
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cyrus Reply:
July 15th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Exactly.
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Alan says:
Being a mayor generally hasn’t served as a good stepping-stone to statewide offices in Texas (think Ron Kirk).
Bill White would only have a shot in a special Senate election if he convinces the other interested Dems to get out of the way (John Sharp has run for so many offices and lost that he’s become a placeholder candidate).
Nobody outside Greater Houston really knows who he is. He could play up the fact that he was Bill Clinton’s Deputy Energy Secretary to show he has national experience, but that doesn’t really hold much water.
There probably will be no Senator Bill White, unless the Republicans field way too many candidates and through a twist of fate White faces a total loser in the runoff (which is basically how John Tower got elected in 1961).
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domestic politics only says:
Patrick would be a tough Senate candidate, however in a special election this state would not elect him because of his politics.
Gov. Perry would not appoint Patrick to a KBH vacated seat because Perry already has the votes that Patrick would bring to the table.
Perry will appoint someone to that senate seat who can bring moderate and independent votes for him.
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Texas Democrat Reply:
July 16th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Domestic Policy, who will Perry appiont to KBH’s Senate seat once she quits this fall ?
A. Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R)-he might seek reelection to a 3rd term in his current gig just to give the State Senate heartburn.
B. State Attorney General Greg Abbott (R).
C. State Comptroller Susan Combs (R).
D. Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R)-he’s itching for a promotion in statewide office.
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Texas Democrat says:
Alan, Ron Kirk also served as then-Gov. Ann Richards’ Secretary of State from ‘94 to ‘95 and two terms as Dallas Mayor, but was overwhelmed by the backlash against Laredo oilman Tony Sanchez (D),who led the Texas Democratic Party’s statewide candidates into a killing field in 2002.
On Houston Mayor Bill White (D), the ONLY way he wins a Senate seat is if the GOP loser is either Williams (Railroad Commish) or Shapiro, assuming Dewhurst stays put as LG and Abbott runs for something else.
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Omigod says:
Somebody close the door to the computer room at the State Mental Hospital, Texas Democrat is on the loose again and off her medication!
And whoever said it earlier, Abbott will not challenge Dewhurst if the Lt. Governor runs for re-election. Perry and Kay are going to suck all the oxygen out of the room, no way to get traction.
Plus that would create a Hutchison/Abbott axis and at the moment, Kay looks like a goner.
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thebluetexan.com says:
I have to disagree and believe that Mayor White has a better chance winning the US Senator’s race. First, your article mentions that who ever Rick Perry appoints to fill KBH’s seat will have time to fundraise. This is true, however, don’t forget Mayor White has already spent his fair share of time in Washington with President Clinton as the deputy secretary of energy. I’m sure he still has many contacts from that tenure. Second, Dewhurst will have to beat Williams in a primary just like Perry and KBH. The advantage of facing two opponents duking it out makes no sense. Lastly, many believe that Mayor White might have presidential ambitions and a possible experience in Washington as a legislator and executive experience as mayor will serve him well.
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