Who has the best chance to hold the Senate seat for the GOP?
I don’t think it is any of the announced candidates.
It’s a member of the Texas congressional delegation, whose members are worried about whether any of the wannabes can hold the seat against a Democrat.
–This candidate has a large, enthusiastic constituency that goes beyond the boundaries of his district and his state.
–This candidate won’t have to spend a nickel on name ID.
–This candidate has $2,742,426 cash on hand.
–This candidate is totally in touch with the GOP base, as it evolves further and further to the right.
–This candidate has demonstrated an amazing ability to raise money on the Internet: He raised $4.2 million in a single day during his campaign for president (albeit short of his goal of $10 million).
It’s (drumroll) Ron Paul, of course. Actually, I’m surprised that Paul hasn’t already thrown his hat into the ring. (His son is running for the U.S. Senate in Kentucky.)
Paul is sponsoring a bill to audit the Federal Reserve. It currently has 282 co-sponsors (218 needed for passage). A member of the GOP delegation told me that his office gets more calls about that bill than any other. Barney Frank, the Democratic chairman of the House Financial Services committee, supports the bill and said Friday that it was going to pass the House.
None of the wannabes has a constituency. Their road to the Senate depends upon Hutchison’s resigning her seat and Perry bestowing the appointment upon a favored candidate. The only candidate in the current collection who would have a shot to beat Paul would be Dewhurst, because of his money, and Paul is far more popular with the GOP base than the Dew is. He would inflame the base.
Tagged: david dewhurst, ron paul, texas senate seat.
Anonymous says:
“Paul is far more popular with the GOP base than the Dew is.”
Poll results, please!?
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Emeyekaye says:
I think the sex tape he made with Bruno will haunt Ron Paul.
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shadowcoe Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Emeyekaye…
You are misinformed…Before making comments on anyone making a sex tape, you should have the facts in order.
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Cord Reply:
September 3rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Really?!?
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Anonymous says:
Paul? That made me laugh.
The answer to your question is Michael Williams. His appointment would be an overnight national sensation. He would have crossover Dem votes in the general, because now all voters would actually know who he is.
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paulburka Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 8:39 am
As I have written previously, I think Williams is Perry’s first choice, but Williams has not shown any ability to raise money, nor is he will known in the state.
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texun Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 1:19 pm
I think that Williams is the only one of the widely discussed possible nominees who could actually lose the seat to a Democrat. The Dems could dust off John Sharp once again and take it.
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1353574|=|= says:
…and once again the state will be overrun with unemployed college grads with trucker hats and beards knocking on doors.
Thank you, Paul Burka!
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eam says:
“Overnight national sensation” (?) Really? Like parachute pants and Dancing with the Stars? Cross over votes for MW? Based on what? Because he’s Black?
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Harry Doghiney (Democrat) says:
Please God let it be Ron Paul.
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Anon-O-Muss says:
One name I haven’t heard mentioned for the appointment, but I think would be a savvy move by Perry, is Victor Carrillo.
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el_longhorn says:
I am a Democrat but would seriously consider voting for Ron Paul.
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Dewhurst's Watchwinder says:
Look here, you selfish philosophers. Dewhurst has an opportunity to TRIPLE the number of people to whom he can condescend daily. Why would you suggest other candidates?
It’s tough to be 6′7″ and remain so shallow.
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Belle Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Actually, its easy to be 6′7″ and remain shallow. People mistake height for personality.
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Rollie the JBC operator says:
Paul, have you forgotten that Ron Paul ran for the senate in 1984 and got killed in the primary by Phil Gramm? Paul got under 20% in that election. It was that defeat that caused him to wander off into the Big L Libertarian wilderness for the next 12 years until he became an R again to take on Laughlin (a recently converted former D) in the 1996 primary.
I see no proof at all that Paul could hold that senate seat. In fact, in the Texas primary for president last year it was a three man race of McCain, Huckabee, and Paul and Paul (despite all his money and the fact that TX is his home state) won only 4.9% of the vote. Come on!
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paulburka says:
Timing is everything in politics. The time is right for Paul’s ultralibertarian ideology, at least among the GOP base.
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Anonymous Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:03 am
The GOP base is ridiculous, but as ridiculous as it is, its numbers won’t work for Paul.
The reason they work for Perry is that he pulls from other parts of the GOP “base” that are the same as those KBH pulls from — and again, she has done absolutely nothing to distinguish herself from Perry (and it appears that she can’t because she doesn’t really have any new or different ideas).
If she and her campaign were smart, they’d use Perry’s appeal to the wackos against him. So far it looks like they’re afraid to do so. But they might as well sinc they’re really not capable of articulating any other real difference between the two.
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Buck says:
Why not just give it to Roger Staubach?
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Buck says:
Or Nolan Ryan?
Wait–they’re both for Kay.
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The Chuco Monster says:
Paul would get D crossover votes from the stoner and peacenik groups.
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The People's Elbow says:
Holy cow would Staubach or Nolan mop the earth with the field. Maybe if the Dems could get Lance….
I agree that Paul is a strong candidate in Texas. The Presidential primary results are not reflective of his appeal because that race was over. The one glimmer of hope for Dems is to run against some R they can paint as a Delay style flat-earther. It would be impossible to do that with Paul. Plus you can’t question his conservative cred.
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Rollie the JBC operator Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 12:33 pm
That just proves my point. If the 2008 primary race was really over by the time it got here then the primary voters would be the “base” of the party, right? Right? Yes. So, why then didn’t Paul do better than 5% in his home state against McCain and Huckabee? For all the money Paul raised he consistently did worse and worse in every primary he entered. Just look at his high water mark in IA. It was slightly less in NH. Lower still in SC and then FL, etc, etc. He raised a ton of money because he was the only Libertarian in the Republican primaries, but he couldn’t get the votes. He can’t win outside of his district and he’s increasingly facing more dissent amongst the GOP primary voters in his CD. I admire Paul’s principals and worked hard for him as a volunteer in both the 96 primary and general election victories, but he’s not a candidate capable of winning state wide.
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Bryan Reply:
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:21 pm
JBC, I followed the 2008 GOP primary and it seemed that Paul came on strong late in the game so there wasn’t really time to get voters acclimated to him and his ideas. The campaign didn’t spend all its cash either, and there were growing pains within the campaign staff (both in size and quality to match the donations). Dr. Paul’s popularity has been increasing however as he continues to pick up support from many in the tea party / 9/12 movements who just started to pay attention late in 2008 or after.
I appreciate your reasoned post as opposed to those who just want to name call.
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Anonymous says:
This speculation is such a waste of time. Down double digits with no guarantee of victory on the governors race (more like a strong possibility of defeat) no way Ray let’s Kay resign her seat. What will he do to make money when no one has to return her call or his call any more? They know they’ve seen a 30 point swing in the race against them… She stays in and hedges her bet. Either way, Ray’s a winner.
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Jim says:
Why would Ron Paul want to be a senator?
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Rollie the JBC operator Reply:
August 31st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Exactly! He doesn’t gain at all from giving up his seat. He has the perfect position now for his efforts. His race for president was never about winning, it was about advancing his ideas. He seems to understand that far better than many of his supporters do. He realized he made a mistake when he gave up his seat in 1984 and it took him 12 years to come back. Besides, in 1984 Tom DeLay took his seat when he ran for the senate. Is that what you want Burka? Ha.
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Rollie the JBC operator says:
I just figured it out – Burka writes about Ron Paul to bring up his hits. Paulians are famous for overwhelming sites. Burka wants some hits to move up the site counter. I’m not sure if its working. Actually, put this on a Free Republic chat board and you’ll have 200 comments on here in a few hours.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Dewhurst and Abbott are the favorites to hold KBH’s Senate seat for the Texas GOP (Perry will appoint either of them).
Rumors are that the governor may call the special election EARLY to piss off Houston Mayor Bill White (D) and former Texas Comptroller John Sharp (D), who held statewide office for 12 years.
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paulburka Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 9:24 am
I continue to think that Abbott will not seek the appointment, as his physical condition is not compatible with the travel demands of the job.
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anon says:
Paul, re: Michael Williams fundraising ability: has anyone raised any significant cash other than White? Sharp raised, what $40k last report?
Ds outraising Rs as much as they have so far only proves the R fundraising machine has yet to start its engine. Name the last Democrat to outraise a Republican in a statewide race.
I tend to think a Senator Michael Williams will pull in max-out checks from all over the U.S., raise $$ hand over fist.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
I tend to think a Senator Michael Williams will pull in max-out checks from all over the U.S., raise $$ hand over fist.
I guess he’s better known all over the U.S. than he is in Texas, huh?
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um says:
I really, really don’t think Abbott is running for Senate. The only people that seem to think he is are folks on blogs’ comment sections (Dems).
the field: Dew, Williams, Williams, Shapiro, Jones
has always been that way
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keenobserver says:
Ron Paul does not have “conservative” credentials, unless the term is so elastic that it will encompass both folks who want to intrude deeply into others’ lives using government and folks who want government out of people’s lives to the maximum extent feasible. The so-called conservative base of the Republican Party has departed from libertarian principles in favor of big government so often that it is mind boggling to think the two groups exist on the same planet much less be discussed in the same sentence without noting what should be their hostilities. Politicians who have successfully cultivated both groups are political hermaphrodites, proving there are some folks whose interests and desires are more flexible than their public rhetoric might otherwise suggest. Sounds like a “big closet” approach to me.
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bob says:
In addition to enthusiastic supporters, cash on hand, and an established network with a proven ability to raise more, the dude has a blimp!
But seriously folks, although his personal philosophy could be classified as a social conservative. He’s actually READ the constitution and supports limited government and fiscal responsibility.
If Ron Paul is appointed, this anarchist will not only support, but even vote for him.
Conversely, if Gov. Goodhair appoints a right wing authoritarian nut job like state senator Dan Patrick (who has endorsed Perry) I will actively work against his election.
Another thing to consider is the beating Texas republicans took last fall in local elections. Their base is not drifting right, it’s shrinking.
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José says:
Libertarianism – where Right meets Left.
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Jason says:
Do you his age is a factor? He’s 74.
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Jason says:
*Do you think his age is a factor? He’s 74.
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paulburka Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 9:22 am
For president, it would be. Not for a Senate seat.
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Ann O'Nymous Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 9:59 am
How about for Gov? How old are Ray and Kay?
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Anonymous says:
Well let’s look at the facts:
In 1984, Ron Paul runs for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate and polls 16.45% of the vote – 55,431 votes out of 336,814 votes cast.
Fast forward 24 years and in 2008, Ron Paul receives 66,360 votes in the GOP Presidential Primary – a mere 4.87% of the vote out of 1,362,322 votes cast.
From 16% down to 5% – yeah, the GOP is just running into Ron Paul’s libertarian arms.
Honestly, I really hope that Burka is smoking crack, otherwise he is just losing touch with reality.
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Ann O'Nymous Reply:
September 1st, 2009 at 10:04 am
Nope. Burka is saying: Here’s something no one else has said yet. OMG!! Discuss amongst yourselves.
Not the kind of item he’d publish in a magazine, but it’s perfect for a blog.
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Danny S says:
JBC, I don’t know what world you are looking at. I mean, yes Paul’s campaign floundered NH when it could have done much better (and in South Carolina for that matter). But it would also be true that as the primaries went on opposition begins to be discounted- especially in the media but also in the common voter’s mind. They rally behind frontrunners.
Paul now has the name ID he never had before the 2008 election. His base is still active in Texas, partially in the tea parties and also in the Medina run which could siphon votes from Perry.
I don’t know why you say his CD is turning against him. Chris Peden was his biggest challenge in a long time, arguably since 96. And he fell apart. This time Paul has drawn only three primary challengers, and they all have barely any funding and barely any name recognition.
One interesting perspective would be to attempt to defuse the Medina run by appointing Paul. It gets him credit with the “conservatarian” tea parties and derails some of her outsider vote-nabbing.
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Brent Burk says:
Why give up seniority in the House and lose all his committee seats to be a Junior senator, only to be forced to run a large campaign he may not win a few months later?
I think he’s safer and more influential in the Congress atm.
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ruler Reply:
September 2nd, 2009 at 7:41 am
under senate rules he keeps the seniority from the house if he goes to the senate
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Dan says:
Ron Paul would be a great appointment. Do it.
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CL says:
I think Ron Paul would make a fantastic senator.
He’s already had a#1 bestselling book, and his End the Fed book will be out this mth. There are a lot of people reading and listening to RP.
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on the sideline says:
Ron Paul’s influence and popularity has grown since the Presidential primaries IMO. The GOP’s continued efforts to snub him have failed to tarnish his influence becuase he is about ideas/principles, not a cult of personality.
He would be a great choice, but I seriously doubt Perry has the cahonies to appoint him.
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James says:
Rand Paul achieved a 26% estimate + $770,000 after about a month or less of campaigning… all that because he is Ron Paul’s son (though his good appearance and speaking ability help a bit). So, for Ron Paul himself to start with any less than 35% support from day one would be unrealistic. Comparing a presidential run to a senate run is ridiculous. Pointing to the 20 year old 16% vote Ron Paul got as an unknown candidate with almost no funding to a 5% score is pointless.
Regardless of that, I don’t think he would want to move into the position given his age and I’d also think he won’t run for president in 2012 for that reason as well.
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TJ says:
If Perry did that he would win the Governors race. He needs that extra few percent against Hutch.
That might make him consider.
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mel says:
Everybody thought Ron Paul was a crackpot, nattering on about fiat money, Austrian economics, and such…until the financial crisis hit, and people realized he was one of the few people to call it years before it hit. Now people take him MUCH more seriously. Not sure about people in Texas, since I don’t live there.
Peter Schiff is also running for office, and I hope he makes it.
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Anonymous says:
No way, Ron Paul’s supporters are Libertarians, not movement conservatives. He is not at all popular with the GOP base. Paul’s grassroots supporters would raise lots of money and give him an impressive volunteer organization, but he couldn’t beat Dewhurst or Abbott and even if he did, he would lose the general election to White or Sharp in a landslide.
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Cliff says:
Ron Paul in touch with the GOP base?
That’s a laugh.
He’d lose half the base the second he announced.
I’ve voted for precisely one Democrat in my life, and that was because the Republican was literally insane and had legal troubles. But I’d vote for the Democrat if Ron Paul were the alternative.
And I’d vote for ANY of the other announced/speculated GOP candidates.
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Libertyspreader says:
When you hear something negative about Paul, research will prove it wrong. Like the sextape comment, that wAs a joke played on Paul. We have the net at our fingertips, that is why we back Paul! Alot of us will abandon the RP for the LP if Paul is not the 2012 hopeful, give us liberty or nothing! That is millions of votes the GOP cannot afford to lose, hey wait, maybe Lindsay Graham was right !
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