The most accurate polls, 09 governor’s races
Democratic pollster/blogger Mark Blumenthal, writing today in politicalwire.com, calculated which polling firms had the most accurate record in calling the two governor’s races. The clear winner was SurveyUSA, which uses automated polling. SurveyUSA nailed the margin in Virginia (18 points) and tied Rasmussen (another automated pollster) for coming closest to calling Christie’s four-point victory in New Jersey. Both firms had Christie winning by three points. I miss having SurveyUSA in Texas. They occasionally had some wide swings in approval ratings from one month to the next, but they provided information that was not available anywhere else. Hard times in the media business caused the TV stations that used the firm to drop them, alas. Some of the most respected names in the business flubbed the Virginia race: Research 2000, the Washington Post, and Mason Dixon all had McDonnell winning, but they missed by the margin of victory by 6 to 8 points.
memo says:
Mr. Burka, I have a couple of contentions:
1. SurveyUSA has dropped off the map due to incredibly far-fetched polls…I remember their numbers in TX from 2006 to be at least 11 points off–both in the Gov’s race and the Senate race.
2. Polling firms were largely inaccurate in Tuesday’s Virginia race due to the simple fact that they were doing their job well. Polling numbers can be completely voided by a lopsided GOTV program. In truth, the median poll margin was probably near-correct if you had 100% accuracy in polling. McDonnell’s turnout machine was vastly superior-the volunteers were energized, and the resources were plenty. Point is that even if a candidate is legitimately down 10 among likely voters, a superior GOTV effort can put them over the top/close the gap.
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john Johnson Reply:
November 5th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Are you saying that late polls are to be ignored? That they don’t represent a true reflection of what is to be expected? That would seem to be the gist of your statement here. If this is true, why do we put so much emphasis on them? Why is so much money spent on conducting them?
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paulburka Reply:
November 6th, 2009 at 1:47 am
Re “memo” — I don’t think that the best time to criticize SurveyUSA is right after they have posted the best record of any polling firm.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Burka, Deeds lost because he had alienated African Americans, Latinos, Asians, and the urban voters from Northern Virginia, plus he flipped-flopped on several issues that caused Blue Dogs and conservatives to flip to McDonnell.
Corzine was too UNPOPULAR, which explains why he got the boot, but Christie is a one term governor by 2013 once Democrats get their act together.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
Watching Ted Poe recite poetry on the floor of the House tells me all I need to know about the future of the Republican Party.
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eyeswideopen Reply:
November 5th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Thank you for your succint answer to the question posed. Read your post in the morning and see if you want to retract it.
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