Why Homer won’t follow Hopson
This is the Democrats’ analysis of why Homer won’t switch parties and is in good shape to win reelection. It was sent to me by a Democratic operative.
1. In 2008, Homer faced the following obstacles in House District 3:
–Obama (08) lost ground to Kerry (04) in every county in the district.
–His opponent was well known and very well financed.
–His opponent benefited from a $100,000 last-minute media buy.
Despite these circumstances, Homer improved his position in all counties from 04 to 08.
2. The voter turnout is more favorable to Republicans in presidential years, more balanced in off years.
–Of the 111 local elected officials in HD 3, 96 are Democrats and 15 are Republicans. –Of the 15 Republicans, 10 are from the two smallest counties.
–Of the 15 Republicans, only five (from the two smallest counties) have won in non-presidential years.
3. After winning a very close race in 04, Homer was targeted in 06 and won comfortably.
–He won over 58% of the vote.
–Of the 114 voting precincts in HD 3, he lost only 7, four of them in his opponent’s home county.
–He delivered 81% of his 04 vote in an off-year election.
4. 80% of his 08 vote is 21,400. The projected 2010 turnout for the district is under 35,000.
In 2006 Homer’s % was equal to or greater that the following Republicans that won: Flynn, B. Cook, Hamilton, Krusee, Miller, S. King, Zedler, Goolsby, Harper-Brown, Branch, Hartnett, Crabb, Davis, Murphy, Bohac, and Talton. Within a point of B. Brown, Crownover, Hancock, and Driver. Within two points of Phillips, Aycock, and Dawson. Homer also finished better than 15 Democrats who were elected.
So what does this mean? If the Rs were ever going to get Homer the time was 2008 and they clearly understood the situation, tried really hard, spent a pot full of money and had a perfect set of circumstances at the top of the ticket. Homer not only won, he received the most votes he ever has. He improved his position with his constituency, enhanced his lists, and improved his organization. Targeting him in 2010 will make a little money for consultants.
* * * *
My comments: The contrarian argument is that in 2008 Homer was running against a candidate he had defeated twice before. That will not be the case this time. Republican House candidates had the burden of the Bush presidency, not to mention the controversy that swirled around speaker Craddick, as well as having to agree to lousy Craddick-dictated campaign strategy. Republicans had little motivation in 08, while they are likely to be highly motivated in 2010. And Homer will be running on a ticket that will not have a credible candidate for governor, nor will it have a recognizable name for any statewide office other than Kinky Friedman. I’m not saying Homer is going to lose. I’m just saying the obvious, that 2010 is a very different year, and past election results may not be predictive of what is going to happen in this volatile political climate. It is never good for conservative Democrats when liberals are in control in Washington.
Tagged: chuck hopson, house district 3, mark homer.
KH says:
“It is never good for conservative Democrats when liberals are in control in Washington.”
Would that liberals were in control in Washington!!
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paulburka Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Well put. They have a majority, but that isn’t the same as control.
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Bubble Buster says:
The global economic meltdown and Washington’s response to it have rendered election results/patterns from 2004, 2006, 2008 as essentially worthless.
The political tsunami, which is out of every House member or candidate’s control, is the Washington political scene. This is played out every day on the cable channels, blogs, Facebook, Twitter, and emails to large constituencies.
Every incumbent D sitting in a heavily R district is in big trouble. Farabee saw this. Hopson saw this. And the rest of them will too. But it’s actually too late for them. The time to switch was last cycle.
At this point, they’re all like a squirrel in the road who sees a car and doesn’t know which way to run, so they get run over. They can stick with the Ds and get run over. Or they can cross to the Rs and get run over in the R Primary on things like Voter ID, gay marriage, abortion, spending, taxes, etc.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Your problem, Bubble Buster, is that you think everyone is like you. They’re not. Some actually have brains.
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The Game says:
Did you just say that Kinky Friedman is going to be the Democratic nominee for governor? I don’t necessarily disagree, but it’s an interesting comment.
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paulburka Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 11:28 am
No, I did not, but it is very possible. I said that he would be the only recognizable name.
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Plain Spoken says:
whatever the case, looking beyond party labels, Homer is a good guy and needs, no deserves, to be re-elected
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Anon says:
None of the remaining WD-40s will be switching party. The Hopson switch pissed them all off and secured their running again as Democrats.
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LegeBoy says:
I’m not sure that Craddick had much to do with House Dems’ victories in the seats they gained last year. Bush certainly helped, but Craddick as a whipping boy had little to do with it. Outside of Austin, the vast majority of polling that I read showed that few respondents even knew who Craddick was, let alone the fact that he had run the House into the ground.
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keenobserver Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
That certainly was not the case in two critical cases: The loss of a long-time R seat in El Paso (formerly held by Pat Haggerty) and Tony Goolsby’s seat in Dallas. El Paso voters were critically aware of Speaker Craddick’s role in deep-sixing the medical school’s funding for years and Goolsby paid the price for Craddick’s missteps, such as in remodeling the House members’ lounge, among others. At that juncture in Texas history, two seats mattered big time. But, of course, candidates don’t have Tom Craddick to kick around any more and name i.d. is extremely perishable.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
And then there was that part about Craddick running the R’s lousy campaigns. That was his contribution. Hopson got the Eppstein group to run his campaign, somewhat of an improvement.
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LegeBoy Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Yes, the shoddy, Rove-wanna-be campaigning was certainly a Craddick contribution. Damn, can we get Craddick back in there for campaign season?
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Anonymous says:
I see two major issues for Homer — with all due respect to his recent opponents, he’s facing a higher caliber opponent.
A 37 year old Iraq war vet with deep ties to the district and who can self fund the race.
Holland Harper.
It might be Representative Harper
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Homer Stays says:
I think Homer does not switch parties because there are already two announced candidates against him.
Randy Cain is local county chair, Holland Harper is a local business guy.
Holland is seen as sharper and more aggressive. An MBA, raised in Paris, has a business there, has three kids, etc.
Holland Harper is kinda weird name, but then it is deep east Texas.
I suspect Homer/Holland becomes a very expensive race next fall.
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Mycall2rise says:
Homer has some skeletons in his closet. I bet someone has the keys and is going to let them out.
Let the truth be know to all.
Follow my blog for updates on HD3 http://www.mycall2rise.com/
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LegeBoy Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Unsubscribe.
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Troy G. White Reply:
November 17th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
I am Troy White, and MyCalltoRise is indeed my blog. However, I did not post the above comments attributed to me. This was brought to my attention, and I wish to make it clear that someone is making false postings under my name. I do indeed support Erwin Cain, but my blog will focus on the positive attributes of the candidate I support. I sure hope this is not a sign of how the other side will conduct their campaign.
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Tim says:
>>Would that liberals were in control in Washington!!
>Well put. They have a majority, but that isn’t the same as control.
Democrats may have the majority, but not liberals. The Democratic party is predominantly conservative by pretty much any standard except the U.S. Republican party. Obama is definitely quite conservative. He doesn’t support gay marriage, he hasn’t started nationalizing companies (and no putting tons of money into failing companies is not the same as nationalizing), he hasn’t in any way changed the US’s stance on foreign trade. I’ll admit he’s pro labor union, but that’s pretty much where his liberalism starts and ends.
I wish we had a liberal party. If only to provide a standard by which other parties could be judged.
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Fiftycal Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA You funny. Homosexual “marriage” is hardly a blip on the totalitarian wannabe’s list. In case you missed it while reading the daily kossack or moveon.orgasm, Obamma did nationalize banks, car companys and is working on the rest of the economy.
It just warms my heart every time I hear about the socialists next move; cap and tax, forced unionism, JAIL if you don’t “volunteer” to pay the tax for the rationed health care boondoggle. At least we can throw some of these bums out in less than 12 months.
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Emund says:
Paul, I hardly agree with 10 percent of what you say –but we’re on the same page here.
Homer is going to have a really tough race, and his campaign shouldn’t waste their time trying to scare donors away.
The seat is winnable in 2010, not only because of what you outlined, but because he is facing a really good Republican candidate in Harper.
Harper not some slick lawyer, or franchisee owner. He is a conservative that can speaks to the local people about their concerns and turn them out on election day.
If I was Homer I’d save the Trial Lawyer’s money and hang it up and become a lobbyist.
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whoa says:
hold up. Harper is a non-factor. he’ll be forced out of the primary by everyone and their momma.
the guy voted in two Democratic primaries. the guy’s family has donated repeatedly to Homer.
Cain has name ID–probably double that of Harper.
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Hans Klingler's New Title says:
Two words for Homer, Holland Harper
Iraq Vet, small business owner, nice family (going to be factor is this race) and conservative.
Add to that the bad environment for Democrats and Homer is in real trouble.
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asmith says:
keenobserver,
The house administration stuff isn’t what hurt Goolsby. He lost touch with his district which is going through demographic shifts, and he had an opponent who had broad support from independent and republican women, plus the Obama tide. He survived in 2006 by bring up a fake voter fraud story. He was on borrowed time. Craddick is only known in Austin and Midland.
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Steven says:
My concern out here is that when you look at Homer, he hasnt really done anything to help us. I know both Harper and Homer, and Harper has worked his butt off to keep jobs coming this way. He worked to get highway 24 here, which keeps trucks coming. Plus, he works with people all over the area and has strong business relationships.
To that guy WHOA that posted on here, you must not be from this area. We havent had any good republicans to vote for in the past, so what are we supposed to do? Just not vote? And who cares if his family has donated to Homer. Holland has never given him a penny.
Cain concerns me. To me, he is just another lawyer that will try and tell everyone what to do, and he’s not from here. He doesnt have a chance.
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asmith says:
I thought the year to knock off the WD40s was 2008. But they will always have close races.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
Methinks pronouncements of a Republican electoral tsunami in 2010 are a tad premature. You can’t will it into existence by announcing that it is so.
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Briscoe Democrat Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Harry, if the Democrats manage to pass Health Care Reform this year (Obama and Co., are pressuring Reid and the Senate to get this passed), the GOP will be the one who pay dearly in 2010.
Like the Democrats got b****-slapped in 2002 despite winning NJ and VA.
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Fiftycal Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Yes, please Mr. knowitall, PLEASE pass the socialist, rationed health care bill. The one that TAXES people for 4 YEARS before it “gives” one bandaid worth of “health care”.. And please shout out that NO REPUBLICAN voted for it. Obamacare is dimocrat people! Hopefully we can drive a stake thru it’s evil heart before too much damage is done.
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Go Bears! Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
One Republican did vote for Healthcare Reform, Rep. Joseph Cao. Maybe “Fiftycal” is a description of the yogurt you eat and not the caliber of your arguments. I would read a story or two on the *bipartisan* effort for Healthcare reform before spouting off.
Jackson says:
There seems to a very strong anti-incumbent trend brewing across the country in light of what is occurring on the national stage. One only needs to consider the ramifications of the elections in Virgina and New Jersey. While Virgina was a decisive GOP victory in a purple that everyone saw coming from a mile away. However, New Jersey, one of the bluest of the “blue states” saw an exceedingly well financed national figure, who enjoyed considerable support from the the DNC and the Obama White House, get ousted. There were also the huge democratic upsets on them municipal levels in traditionally blue Westchester county, outside of of NYC and in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Given the sense of subtle rage that is brewing in large swaths of the country, I don’t think that having a D next to your name, or being an incumbent is a huge asset this round.
Furthermore, the fact that Harper’s family has given to Homer in the past is not an insurmountable barrier by any measure nor is the fact that he has participated in Democratic primaries. It is not uncommon for principled conservatives to vote in Democratic primaries for the likes of Al Sharpton or Howard Dean in an attempt to dilute potential outcomes in the general election. Popular conservative personalities such as Limbaugh and Hannity have advocated this repeatedly. Across party donations on the local level show a commitment to grassroots politics and civic involvement.
Furthermore, Harper stands to benefit from the fact that he isn’t a career politician, has long standing ties to the district, is an Iraq Veteran, and understands the economic realities and needs as evidenced by his direct regional business experience. He is not constricted by incumbency and in many ways, may be more reflective of the current sentiment in the district than Homer.
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rolio says:
Homer’s challenger was a slum lord, and not a good candidate by any stretch.
The last minute $100,000 media buy was not an asset. It was way too late.
His challenger’s consultants were mediocre and lost every race they were involved in.
Home is vulnerable. He voted against voter ID. He is unexamined by his district. Give people a chance to know the real Mark Homer.
He called an association I lobby for, he is worried.
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Harper for me says:
I too know Harper. He will be my guy! I have never known anyone that cares more about his community. I know he will work tirelessly for all of us to make our voices heard in Austin and beyond!!
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Harper for me,too says:
Harper for me, too!!
I only have one vote and I can’t waste it.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Burka, here’s how I see the 2010 situation:
Democrats will LOSE the US House because of Pelosi’s horrible leadership and reports are they’re likely to lose 20-40 House seats, especially the Blue Dogs who represent GOP districts that Rahm Emanuel worked his tail off to get them elected in 2006 and 2008.
In the Senate, they’ll only pick-up Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri and North Carolina.
On the governorships, Democrats will likely pick-up:
1. California (open)-with State AG Jerry Brown (D), believe me, he’s RUNNING and has been since 2007.
2. Hawaii (open)-with US Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), it’s Obama’s birthplace and the President is super-popular over there, so the Dems get Washington Place back.
3. Alabama (open)-with US Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) joining L. Douglas Wilder, Deval Patrick, David Paterson and Pinchback as the nation’s 5th African American governor.
4. Vermont (open)-with former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine (D).
5. Connecticut (open)-with 3-term CT Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) because outgoing Governor Jodi Rell (R) chose not to seek reelection to a 2nd full term due to battling with the Democratic-controlled state legislature.
6. Arizona-with State AG Terry Goddard (D) because incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer (R) sucks and very unpopular due to her poor handling of the state’s budget crisis and economic recession.
7. Rhode Island (open)-with State AG Patrick Lynch (D), making him the state’s first Democratic governor since 1992.
8. Minnesota (open)-with Minneapolis Mayor RT Rybak (D).
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Go Bears! Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
The Democrats could lose 40 seats and still retain “control” of the U.S. House of Representatives. 258-177. I mean it’s just math, subtract from one column add to the other.
As for your “predictions”, is there an election scenario in which generic democratic senatorial candidate X wins in North Carolina and Heath Shuler loses in the piedmont (which would be necessary to fulfill your House prediction). I mean in what world is that possible?
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crazy uncle says:
Tim
I assume that you didn’t read the Texas vs. California article. Recently Germany, Canada, France, have rejected their decades of a government led by a liberal party. Cuba has a liberal party by which other parties can be judged. Todays liberals should be called reactionaries. They want to go back to the economic systems proposed by socialist,and national socialist of the first 50 years of the 20th century. Do the same thing over and get the same results.
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Anonymous Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
The closest thing we have in the U.S. to the national socialist party is the present-day GOP.
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whoa says:
yes, I used to live there. harper is a Democrat running in the GOP primary. he’s mentioned publicly several times that he always votes for Homer.
that tells me, among other things, he doesn’t have a good head on his shoulders. who would go around telling folks that while running for office?
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Steven says:
If he were a Democrat, WHOA, why isnt he running as a democrat. That’s idiotic.
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Anonymous says:
I see that a little search on the name holland harper shows that someone from east texas gave to McCain in 2008, hardly what a Dem would do.
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Briscoe Democrat Reply:
November 12th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Anon, Kay is suffering from the Brett Favre disease: she can’t seem to make a decision on whether to resign her Senate seat and challenge Perry or quit the race altogether.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xDhi06XIAM
Kay Bailey’s FLIP-FLOPS:
1. She promised the people of Texas that she would serve 2 terms in the Senate when she was elected in 1993.
2. When she announced her candidacy for the governorship (after flip-flopping a lot since 2005), she pledged to serve 2 terms if elected, we’ll see how that last ?
3. Kay said she planned to resign her Senate seat in the summer after the legislative session ends in June 2009.
4. She later said it would be in September.
5. Then she said either October or November, and now she’s saying early December.
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Anonymous says:
I don’t think it is a “nasty” divorce but in small town rural east Texas what doesn’t play well is “adultery”
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Anonymous says:
The same Holland Harper that voted in three of the last four Democratic primaries? Is he running Homer in the March?
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paulburka says:
Re anonymous at 1:02 p.m. –
No, nobody “had” to say it. It is, however, widely known. As for anonymous at 9:49 p.m., you are violating rule #1 of the blog, which is that scurrilous character accusations against public figures is prohibited. I am going to ask Eileen to remove this comment.
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Briscoe Democrat on Crack says:
My name says it all!
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asmith says:
Jackson,
Corzine was corrupt, and he could be easily tied to wall street bailout anger since he ran Goldman Sachs. Virginia could have been closer and wouldn’t have been a bloodbath had Deeds ran a better campaign. That state votes the opposite of the party who holds the white house since 1977. That’s more than a pattern.
Folks took a look at Republican primary voters in 08 in texas and there weren’t that many who voted for Clinton.
VA may have had some national implications, but NJ was mainly a local election. Having said that the GOP is hungry for victories. They have been beaten from prom queen to president in many states in the last few years.
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Harry Doghiney (D-TX) says:
New Rasmussen poll says Perry has a double-digit primary lead over KBH.
Morning coffee grounds foretell her announcement, sometime next month, that there’s too much important work to be done in the Senate for her to spend one minute campaigning for governor. “We need all hands on deck to defeat the forces of socialism and mooslimism.” – KBH
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Briscoe Democrat Reply:
November 13th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Harry, in other words, Perry is BACK for 4 more years starting his 3rd full term beginning January 18, 2011 to January 20, 2015.
Obama’s health care reform is likely to be passed either this year or early 2010 so that he can rub it in the GOP’s faces.
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issues not insults says:
After meeting Mr. Harper and hearing his story, he will have my vote. He is the real deal and any political “barbs” contrived to sway my vote will not work. Get on board. He will do the most for our district!!
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Concerned Blogger says:
To the above comment from “Mycall2rise” regarding “skeletons in the closet”…
I am the creator and author of http://www.mycall2rise.com and I am appalled that someone would use my name and website to advance a personal attack on any political candidate. I did not post this comment and I ask Mr. Burka to please have it erased as well. I will not attack any candidate on personal issues.
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