Houston mayor’s race poll: Parker +4
Note to readers:
Bill King, who had considered running for mayor but decided not to make the race, has sent his considerable e-mail list the results of the first known post-election poll. This is his report. My comments follow the asterisks, below:
Gene Locke’s campaign has released the first poll taken since November 3. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday nights (November 9 & 10) by Paul Maislin, who also polled for Lee Brown and Bill White. The poll showed [Annise] Parker leading by 43-39% with 18% undecided. The margin of error was 4%.
The poll shows that Parker and Locke are splitting Peter Brown votes [the third-place finisher--pb] fairly evenly with most white Democrats shifting to Parker and Brown’s African-American supporters moving to Locke. The undecided voters at this point are mostly suburban, white, and Republican leaning. The suburban-white-Republican-leaning voters that have made up their minds about the race are breaking strongly in Locke’s favor by about a 70-30 margin. This group is primarily been responsible for Locke moving from 10% down in the election to within the margin of error of Parker.
The poll is modeled on a 170,000-voter turnout in the election. About 180,000 voters voted on November 3. Turnout normally falls in a run-off election; however in the 2001 mayoral election, when Lee Brown was challenged by Orlando Sanchez, the turnout actually increased from 280,000 to 310,000. UH political science professor and long-time Houston pollster, Dick Murray, thinks this could happen again this year. The general consensus is that a low turnout in this election helps Parker because of her relatively small, but very loyal base. Conversely, if turnout is higher, Locke will be the likely beneficiary because additional voters will more likely be African-Americans or Republican leaning voters.
Here in my [King's] mind are the critical factors to watch over the next four weeks:
1. African-American Turnout/Enthusiasm. Locke got just under 70% of the African-American vote with almost all the rest going to Brown. This poll indicates that Locke will virtually shut Parker out of the black vote. The question is how many African-Americans will vote. On November 3, probably only about 45,000 African-Americans voted. In the 2001 election, when Lee Brown was besieged by Orlando Sanchez, nearly 100,000 voted in the run-off. As a result Locke has huge up-side potential in the African-American vote.
2. The Suburban-White-Republican-Leaning Undecideds. The suburban-white-Republican-leaning voters do not have an ideal candidate in this race. The ones that decided quickly broke to Locke. One can speculate that these were likely social conservatives for which Parker’s lifestyle and liberal activism are automatic disqualifiers. The balance of these voters will be more likely motivated by policy specifics such as crime, immigration, city finances, and traffic. How the candidates differentiate themselves on these issues will likely be the deciding factor. The debates could be very important in competing for these voters. Locke has some advantage in that a number of high profile Republicans such as Robert Eckels, Ned Holmes, and Chase Untermeyer have already endorsed him. Parker has few offsetting Republican endorsements.
3. The Suburban-White-Republican-Leaning Turnout. The second question with respect to suburban-white-Republican-leaning voters is will they vote. Of course, historically this group turns out at very high rates. However, there is also the possibility that with two clearly identified Democrats in the race they may declare a pox on both their houses and stay home. Based on how this vote is breaking so far, a higher turnout will likely favor Locke.
4. Fundraising. It is likely that both campaigns will be reasonably well funded. Locke has enjoyed the support of most of Houston’s business establishment and Parker has the ability to raise national GLBT money. Parker’s first-place finish has also won her the support of some traditional City Hall vendors such as the engineers and contractors. Having a war chest will be critical. The race is likely to turn highly negative in the home stretch. Each side will need to have funds to respond to the negative ads you will undoubtedly be seeing soon.
I think the main take away from the poll is that this race is very much up for grabs. Parker has the inertia but Locke has the momentum. However, neither is an immovable object or an irresistible force.
* * * *
Parker’s four-point lead over Locke is not much difference from the election-night result, which showed her with a 5.68% advantage over Locke, or just under 10,000 votes. But the climate for the runoff is likely to be quite different than the climate for the election. I posted yesterday about Steven Hotze’s involvement in the race, which will likely focus on opposition to Parker’s gay lifestyle. The resistance to Parker goes far beyond Hotze, however. This is from the Chronicle’s story yesterday:
A cluster of socially conservative Houstonians is planning a campaign to discourage voters from choosing City Controller Annise Parker in the December mayoral runoff because she is a lesbian, according to multiple ministers and conservatives involved in the effort.
The group is motivated by concerns about a “gay takeover” of City Hall, given that two other candidates in the five remaining City Council races are also openly gay, as well as national interest driven by the possibility that Houston could become the first major U.S. city to elect an openly gay woman.
Another primary concern is that Parker or other elected officials would seek to overturn a 2001 city charter amendment that prohibits the city from providing benefits to the domestic partners of gay and lesbian employees.
“The bottom line is that we didn’t pick the battle, she did, when she made her agenda and sexual preference a central part of her campaign,” said Dave Welch, executive director of the Houston Area Pastor Council, numbering more than 200 senior pastors in the Greater Houston area. “National gay and lesbian activists see this as a historic opportunity. The reality is that’s because they’re promoting an agenda which we believe to be contrary to the concerns of the community and destructive to the family.”
Welch said he had “no doubt” there would be numerous independent advocacy efforts urging voters not to choose Parker, most of which would involve mail.
I find this appalling. It is going to make Houston look really bad.
Tagged: annise parker, gene locke, peter brown.
Anonymous says:
Appalling, perhaps, but revealing at the same time. Religious conservatives talk “love” but are really about ignorance, prejudice, and bigotry. Sooner or later, society as a whole is going to have to beat it down. I think it would be GREAT if the first major city to elect an openly Lesbian mayor turned out to be in the great red state of Texas. Maybe there is hope after all, in spite of all the garbage at the top of the state ticket.
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Anonymous says:
“I find this appalling. It is going to make Houston look really bad.”
It wouldn’t be the first time Steven Hotze found a way to make Houston look bad.
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Stevie F. says:
Some businesses are going to be asking if Houston can focus on the work it takes to make a city thrive or if the city will get bogged down in anger over minor issues.
This could also make Texas look bad as it bleeds into state-wide politics. At the moment, Texas politicians seem to be much better at picking fights than solving problems.
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1353 574|=|= says:
The race is up for grabs?
You’ve read enough polling memos in your time to know that this is just a poll firm hedging its bet. This is no more “revealing” than Bob Stein’s poll for KHOU that would not release numbers.
Call ‘em like you see ‘em, Paul. I’d like to think you can see ‘em better than the way you called this one.
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paulburka Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 9:27 am
I have no idea what your concern is here. This poll was identified as coming from the Locke campaign. Readers can choose to give it whatever weight they think it deserves. But I certainly am not going to call a Houston race one way or the other when I don’t pay close attention to local politics.
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1353 574|=|= Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
The point was that there’s really nothing of real import about this poll memo. Whether or not you follow H-Town politics, it should be noted how weak this release is. The language was generic, and the numbers soft.
Full disclosure: I support Annise Parker…
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PixieGirl says:
Bill King is ridiculous. He wanted to run himself and then chickened out when the good old boy network decided he wasn’t their guy. Now, he thinks his opinion matters. Give us all a break.
The power structure in Houston has changed greatly and undergone a dramatic shift in Houston,but the good old boys didn’t get the memo. The electorate won’t tolerate our next Mayor being judged by his or her sexual preference or their skin color. Annise Parker wins, hands down.
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masked man says:
“As I have previously stated, I reject any association with the style of campaigning that was the subject of an article in the Houston Chronicle today. We have serious issues to deal with in our city that require us to work together as one Houston and I trust that Houstonians will choose a new mayor based on the issues that effect our lives every day and not to be swayed by divisive rhetoric.” Gene Locke
Ummmmm, sure you do Gene, why were you at their event last week then?
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Anonymous says:
Steven Hotze and Ron Paul make me wonder if you can get a medical degree with no education whatsoever in the social sciences, much less social etiquette.
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Anonymous says:
Not sure what you mean by “gay lifestyle.” What is a “gay lifestyle?”
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paulburka Reply:
November 15th, 2009 at 9:33 am
I used “gay lifestyle” to refer to the fact that Parker is openly gay. She mentions her life partner in her bio. Of course, if she had not mentioned the life partner, she would have been criticized for that too.
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Robert Montgomery Reply:
November 30th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
So would it be safe to say you have a “straight lifestyle” or a “hispanic lifestyle?” I find the whole “lifestyle” reference incredibly ignorant.
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HouAnon says:
I don’t agree with Paul Burka’s physics:
1st place finish in general + lead in this poll + most loyal motivated supporters = inertia
I’m sorry, that just doesn’t add up.
While I don’t have a dog in this hunt, I do know that comparing the motivation for the 2001 runoff and this runoff are like comparing apples and oranges.
Repeat: Annise ain’t Orlando, and her voters aren’t Orlando voters, and Orlando voters are probably going to have a hard time voting for the black guy with metro rail and stadiums in his commercial.
I honestly don’t think anyone, aside from the Parker campaign, has accurately predicted the difficulty of Locke’s coalition of African American base and Republicans.
While turnout among the groups can be pretty easily defined, there is no message that unites them. No message that Locke can publicly say or advertise anyway.
Parker has gone for the middle ground, and competency and experience is much easier to sell to the audience she is pitching.
Anyone want to be the turnout will be lower than the November general election day number?
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paulburka says:
To Hou Anon –
Maybe I did a poor job of explaining how I organized the blog post. Everything above the asterisks comes from Bill King’s e-mail. I would not venture to analyze the Houston mayor’s runoff. I would be too likely to make a fool of myself from lack of knowledge. My main interest in the runoff is to see whether the Republicans and the evangelicals can bring shame upon their city by making this a referendum on gays.
I never wrote anything about inertia or Orlando Sanchez. That is all Bill King.
Everything below the asterisks represents my comments.
Everything above the asterisks is from Bill King’s e-mail.
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Bill Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Ok, gotcha. So I disagree with Bill King’s physics (not the first time but he does have a good point of view).
Other point I think is interesting is that for the first time, it will be about even on fundraising. Annise deserves a lot of credit for doing so well with relatively so little.
Now that she has about equal footing, it will be interesting to see how that affects turnout. Turnout is the name of the game.
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High Wire Artist says:
I give up. First Burka falls into the trap of crazy Carl Whitmarsh, now into the arms of the ridiculous Bill King. Which silly Houstonian gets a mention here next, lending them the air of credibility?
Burka, if you aren’t going to follow local politics, then stay out of them. You seem to have zero clue what is going on in the mayor’s race here, so you are just tossing back whatever nutty stuff someone emails you.
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Jane Vieu says:
Instead of using “gay lifestyle”, how about you just say “Parker is gay” or “Parker is openly gay”?
“Gay lifestyle” makes it sounds like you’ve taken a side in the culture war. I hope not.
“Gay lifestyle” is a polarizing right wing buzzword used to stir up anti-gay sentiment.
My girlfriend and I don’t think our “lifestyle” is much different from a straight couple’s, other than than the fact that we’re both girls.
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Gary D says:
It is disappointing but not unexpected that Locke is going that route. He already had alienated women voters with several good ol’ boy gaffes earlier in the campaign.
It is significant that his political team consists of highly paid national Democratic and Republican operatives and insiders from a previous mayoral team not known for its smoothness or ethics.
Now his meeting with the smear master of the far right in Houston and then a statement that essentially says Locke is not going to be responsible for what others say about his opponent is a politic style we thought Houston outgrew in local races.
I hope many Republicans will stay home rather than vote for a Black Democrat angling for homophobic support.
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aj says:
So Mr. Locke is seeking Dr. Hotze’s endorsement? Dr. Hotze’s website Conservative Republicans for Texas, has an essay called “Pray Obama Fails.” I wonder how Locke would defend that to his supporters.He’s already now permanently connected to Hotze. You can’t go after an endorsement and then try to dance around it and distance yourself from it. I don’t believe Gene Locke is anti-gay, but I believe he knows exactly what Hotze represents, including the fact that Dr. Hotze hopes our first African-American fails.
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Texian Politico says:
Did it make Dallas look bad when it elected a heterosexual over a homosexual in the last mayoral race? I don’t remember any boycotts of Dallas or national embarassment.
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paulburka Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 11:52 am
No, it didn’t make Dallas look bad, because there was no Hotze-type who made an issue of it, and Leppert wasn’t going to do it, because he didn’t have to do it to win.
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Anonymous Liberal Lout says:
Texian,
The Dallas race didn’t wallow in hateful speech about “lifestyles.” There was very little anti-gay bashing, if I recall correctly and rom a distance.
Instead, the Dallas reace was about two tepid, uninspiring candidates-one of whom happened to be gay.
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Anonymous Liberal Lout says:
Paul,
I second Jane Vieu’s comment’s above. Use of the term “gay lifestyle” is loaded phrase, used by the right, to disparage gays and lesbians. It is intended to several things:
1) Imply that they are “different,” are of the “other” and don’t share morals, values, etc.
2) Imply that their activities are unwholesome, trying to bring up associations with promiscuous sex, and pedophilia (a long discredited belief).
3) Create buy in to the idea that being gay is a “choice” and therefore regulation and prohibition of LGBT people and activities, like marriage, is not only allowable but “in their own best interest.”
Truthfully, your average “gay lifestyle” is about working for a living, raising the kids and going to church–a lot like that of the people who try to oppose them.
To the extent that a minority of gay people engage in social activities that differ from this stereotype I think the opponents of LGBT equality have to ask themselves “Did we bring this on ourselves? Did we force gay people to live differently by prohibiting their gatherings, outlawing their relationships, banning any recognition of their stable couples, firing them from jobs, and fearing them because we don’t know them?” I think that’s a very valid question. I think the right has helped create the thing they fear (to the extent it even exists).
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paulburka says:
There is nothing inherently loaded about “gay lifestyle, except that certain persons may have co-opted the term. There is nothing, on the face of it, that suggests that “gay lifestyle” is more, or less, anti-gay, than “openly gay.” As I said previously, I used them interchangeably to mean the same thing. I do not wish to get into a cultural war over what is or is not politically correct or incorrect. If, inadvertently, I managed to get into one, I don’t share the viewpoints described in points (1), (2), or (3), above.
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Anonymous says:
Fair enough, though we obviously disagree about the “loaded” aspect of the language.
Having said all this, of course, forewarned is forearmed.
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Paul says:
Steve Hotze, Phyllis Shafley & Anita Bryant – I thought we moved past these reactionaries in the 1980’s. Anise’s qualifications for mayor have nothing to do with these paranoid people’s delusional perception of gay people.
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Briscoe Democrat says:
Burka, I think Locke may suffer from a Bradley Effect here with some swing voters saying PUBLICLY they’ll vote for him in the runoff, but secretly vote for Parker in the privacy of the voting booth.
Plus, the last African American mayor, Lee P. Brown (D), who served from 1998-2004 was very unpopular and HATED a lot by many Houstonians for his lack of strong leadership skills.
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Bill Justice says:
Houston Mayoral Politics is an animal unto itself. I have been working on Mayoral candidates campaigns since 1971. This election is unique because of the Locke Campaign’s attempt to actively seek Conservative Republican Westside support. His sole disagreement with Annise Parker appears to be that he is married with children and Annise is not. That is not enough for many of my progressive friends in Houston who are going to vote for Annise Parker.
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