GOP puts its comeback hopes on redistricting–and guess who is leading the way?
The Huffingtonpost blog today carries a story headlined “GOP Looks to Redistrict Itself Back into Power.” The gist is that Republicans have “a sense of dread” over a “potentially massive” loss of seats in Congress this fall. The contingency plan: Win a majority of governorships (Democrats currently hold 28 of 50) and use the governors’ influence over redistricting to have state legislatures draw maps friendly to GOP candidates.
This might sound to Texas ears as the kind of story that is of inside-the-Beltway interest only, except for the first organization mentioned in the story:
“The 2010 elections are almost as important or equally important as the elections this year. After redistricting in 2011, the governors are going to have a huge influence in determining the political makeup of this country,” said Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. “We could feasibly see 25 to 30 congressional seats swing as the result of redistricting. And the state legislatures and governor could determine that swing. Can the National Republican Congressional Committee make a statement like that with a straight face? It would be harder for them.”
Ah yes, the Republican Governors Association. Chris Schrimpf works for Rick Perry. The slap at the NRCC was vintage Perry. The message is that if Republicans want to swing 25 to 30 congressional seats to the GOP in 2010, they should put Perry and the RGA in charge–and contribute their money to the RGA–rather than the NRCC. Elect governors who are willing and eager to gerrymander in 2011. It worked in Texas, didn’t it?
Whatever you or I may think of Perry as a governor, it would be a mistake to think that he is anything less than a brilliant politician. He has a homing instinct for hidden sources of power, like the RGA. He understands money and he understands message, and he knows how to use both. If he is able to make himself into the chief fundraiser for Republican governors in 2010, he will establish himself as a major force in Republican circles, if he is not that already. I have believed for some time now that he is positioning himself to run for president in 2012. He could come out of the 2010 elections holding IOUs from a lot of governors he helped elect. That is a pretty good way to start a presidential campaign. Don’t laugh.
tbobmccoy says:
Not laughing, but it seems rather unlikely considering his support in his own state was last rated at 41%…
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Benevolus says:
Perry the President? Since Coolidge, every US president attended either law school or Yale or Stanford or a military academy—-in some capacity, even if not earning a degree. The singular exception was a nationally-known actor. That’s 13 out of 14 presidents. Oh yeah, either Obama (Harvard Law) or McCain (Naval Academy) will continue the trend. So Perry will probably need to fill out some admissions applications before setting his sights on the Presidency.
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Anonymous says:
ROFLMAO
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mark says:
a presidential run from a man who could only get 39% of the vote in his own state? If $$ is so important to a presidential run why is there no president graham or president mitt? Do you actually think about this stuff before you write it down or is that not a job requirement? At this point it’s hard to tell what is the worse run american industry. Auto’s or media.
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José says:
If you must cite stats, cite the context. Remember that in 2006 the TxGuv race featured multiple major candidates. Shoot, Kinky got 12% and that was only good enough for fourth place. Goodhair still won by nearly 10% of the ballots, which is better than Clinton did in either of his elections.
Six years give Perry a lot of time to build a warchest, collect favors, and work on his image. And if you think that being an idiot disqualifies you from getting elected, well, take a look at the White House today.
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Anonymous says:
Sure. The nation’s electorate will just be demanding to inaugurate another all-hat-no-cattle Texas buffoon-cum-governor in 2012.
Sorry, but I’ll laugh, thanks.
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gospurs says:
Back to Paul’s post…
Here’s a question: how many of the 50 governors had a “huge influence” in redistricting last cycle? Not many.
In some states, the governor has no role at all. Some states have independent redistricting commissions. In most states, the governor’s only power in the redistricting process is to veto redistricting legislation.
For a governor to have any role beyond partisan cheerleader, some conditions must be present. The state must have partisan voters dispersed in a way that a map can be skewed and stretched to pack or divide voters of the opposing party. Opportunities to gerrymander may be limited by state constitutional restrictions and the federal voting rights act. Also, incumbents of both parties have a way of protecting their territory and reducing opportunities to maximize party strength. The state must have a political situation in which a veto matters. Many states have split partisan control already; a veto won’t matter in those states. Finally, the state must have more than one congressional district–there’s no redistricting in Alaska.
Each cycle, only a handful of the 50 governors actually exercise power in redistricting. Typically, the governor’s veto can’t add friendly districts but can prevent the loss of friendly districts.
Huge influence?
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Texun says:
I don’t know. I just can’t image Perry as “brilliant” at anything. At running state agencies? At winning majorities? At screwing the taxpayers with his expensive home rental? Oh, yeah. The last achievement was real!
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centraltxdem says:
cant decide whether i’m ROFLMAO or PATT (puking at the thought)
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Dallas says:
Perry’s staffer is absolutely right. The 2010 election decides which party controls redistricting … and that will give one party a huge advantage over the next 10 years. My only comment is .. “duh!” Both parties are aware of this. It’s going to be a bigger fight than 08. Not sure how this is noteworthy as a Perry/Republican thing.
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paulburka says:
To Texun (#8) –
It’s silly to carp about his rent house. The governor of Texas has state functions to execute, and the people of Texas should want him to have a nice domicile where he can receive people. This is a non-issue.
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Peter Stern says:
I agree with you 100 percent!
Perry already has anchored himself as the leader of the Governors’ Committee of all the states.
Perry is a slick politician and you are correct that he knows how to use the system to get his way.
He has done so with pushing toll roads and the Trans-Texas Corridor, the border fencing issue, and deregulating various industries e.g., electric, health care/medical, higher education, etc.
He is a master of “behind the scenes” manipulation.
The GOP will and must try anything and everything it can to stay in power, because it is losing its hold.
Unfortunately, the party does NOT seem to be able to think of holding onto its seats by IMPROVING on its platform, direction and actions that would benfit the ENTIRE Texas community.
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John Cobarruvias says:
“Not laughing, but it seems rather unlikely considering his support in his own state was last rated at 41%”
Uh…..that is 31% cowboy. Might even be lower.
Sincerely,
Cowdude.
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ScreamingInsideSince1994 says:
Perry a “slick politician”? Please. And how does he expect to swing the redistricting when the Texas House becomes much bluer after the 2008 elections? This is a load of horse hockey.
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Peter Stern says:
BTW, it was 39 percent of the voters who voted FOR Perry and 61 percent voted AGAINST him!
And yes, Perry is slick in that he gets his way most of the time. What other politician — governor — gets his way when he received only 31-percent of the total vote???
If that’s not slick, I don’t know what is.
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Murray says:
it’s interesting that ol’ rick has stacked up one positive accomplishment after another and Texas has earned one accolade after another as a result of his leadership and all the lefty whiners can muster is the old intentional misread of the vote percentages from two years ago. they say ‘governor 39%’ and I say ‘texas #1′ in the country in a ton of economic categories…pick a new song that reflects current reality.
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Peter Stern says:
One of the top #1 Texas strongholds is that it is number 1 in the highest home insurance premiums in the nation.
In addition, Texas is near the bottom of the list of effective public school programs in the nation.
Perry’s push for deregulation has had an adverse effect and increased costs dramatically for hardworking Texans.
- Higher electric costs to consumers
- Ongoing increases of higher education tuition
- Escalating medical costs and health care premiums
- Hurt businesses with the new business tax, making it a business “income tax”
- Pushing more costs and penalties onto local governments.
The list of Perry’s special interest incompetence and actions go on and on.
“Misread of the vote percentages”? Are you on drugs? Guess you think there’s a “liberal conspiracy” against poor Rick Perry?
BTW, the majority of Texans who did NOT vote for Perry are NOT liberals — or do you mistakenly also believe that most Texans are Democrats and/or liberals?
Even his former GOP supporters don’t particularly like Perry. Must be a reason for that, don’t you think?
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Bodhisattva says:
To PaulBurka (#10)
You said:
It’s silly to carp about his rent house. The governor of Texas has state functions to execute, and the people of Texas should want him to have a nice domicile where he can receive people. This is a non-issue.
Paul, you’re right that the Mansion is not only a residence for the governor and his family. It is also a tourist destination in itself and a venue for all kinds of state functions. Obviously, there are no tours of Perry’s new digs.
Has anyone done a story on whether the home in Barton Country Club is actually being used for formal receptions, state dinners, and the like? How often? As often as the Mansion was?
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Nelly says:
Perry is planning out for his future. Note his recent book, all about lauding the virutes of Boy Scouts (and what a great opportunity for Gov. Perry to tout his opposition to Homersexuals). Note his campaigning in the early primary states—but he picked the wrong horse this time. He trys to get his mug on national TV as often as possible. Sadly, many voters prefer the less smart candidate and are suspicious of brainy people.
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