My best guess: Perry 48 Hutchison 32 Medina 20 Three things to be determined: 1. Can Perry win without a runoff? Perry has said yes. That may cause some of his voters to stay home. 2. Can Medina overtake Hutchison to get in a runoff? I don’t think so. 3. How far behind does Hutchison have to be before she concedes rather than go through a run-off? It’s really up to her contributors. They may pull the plug.