Texans for Lawsuit Reform announced its endorsements for the fall elections Thursday, and while the vast majority of TLR’s choices were Republicans, four WD-40s in the Texas House of Representatives who face contested races received the influential organization’s nod: Mark Homer, Paris (50.22% in 2004); Chuck Hobson, Jacksonville, (52.7% in
Here is the text of Perry’s new TV spot on education. The governor does all the talking, on screen or in the background. “Public school funding, standards, and achievement are all up. I’m proud of Texas schools. Since I became governor, education funding has increaed nine billion dollars. We passed
SurveyUSA’s latest monthly tracking poll of President Bush’s approval ratings has Bush at 50% or better in only five states:Utah 59%Idaho 57%Wyoming 53%Nebraska 51%Texas 50%The weighted average for all fifty states is 39%. The weighted average is determined by factoring in each state’s share of U.S. population. The poll
Perry Going Nowhere at 35%, But That May Be Just Enough To Win Re-Election. That’s SurveyUSA’s headline for its first poll of the governor’s race since June 26. The methodology involved interviews of 1,000 adults over a three-day period (September 16-18), 863 of whom were registered voters. From that
The scientific weakness of the Zogby/Wall Street Journal/Battleground States poll, which I have posted about several times, is finally getting some scrutiny. The link is to a piece in the online version of the Columbia Journalism Review and mentions my criticism as well as that of Rutgers political science
I guess I must have wasted way too much time watching the Astros blow their chance at the playoffs, because now that I’ve given up on them, I’m seeing all sorts of political spots on TV. “Proud,” the latest Rick Perry spot, is very good, very professional, full of images
I just saw Kinky Friedman’s “Good Shepherd” commercial for the first time. It’s one of the best political spots I have ever seen. Maybe the best. It is completely unexpected. Kinky’s voice is perfect. The Hill Country scenes are idyllic. His handling of the animals is loving and gentle. This
Is Governor Perry’s executive order of last fall, calling for expediting the hearing process for new power plants, many of them coal-fired, showing up on polls as a possible threat to Perry’s reelection? That would explain why a piece explaining his decision appears in the Dallas Morning News
From the Dallas Morning News: Bill Clinton, remembering Ann Richards, spoke at the Capitol yesterday, saying, “We loved her. We loved her because we knew she loved us, and because she made us bigger…. I love that she never gave up on Texas.”–Mr. Former President, you
When Ann Richards was born on September 1, 1933, the governor of Texas was a woman–Miriam “Ma” Ferguson. She was the wife of former governor James “Pa” Ferguson, who had been impeached in 1917. Ineligible to run for office himself, Pa had come up with the idea that Ma should
Let’s break away from Texas politics to check out the race for control of the U.S. Senate, which currently has a 55-45 Republican majority. According to my favorite Web site for following national politics, www.electoral-vote.com, the current projection is for a 50-50 tie. If this were to be the
It seems as if every conversation I had today (Tuesday), and about half of the e-mails, focused on poll methodology and accuracy. This spike of interest, of course, is due to the two polls released yesterday that showed Governor Perry falling below 35%. The San Antonio Express News ran a
Thanks to the Quorum Report for posting the results of the latest Rasmussen Poll, which was taken before Perry and Strayhorn spots hit the airwaves after Labor Day:Governor’s RacePerry (R) 33%Strayhorn (I) 22%Bell (D) 18%Friendman (I) 16%Perry Favorable: August 54%, September 48%Strayhorn Favorable: August 45%, September 53%Senate RaceHutchison (R) 58%Radnofsky
“Texans don’t expect much from state government, and Rick Perry delivers what they expect.”–Southern Methodist University political science professor Cal Jillson, quoted by R. G. Ratcliffe in the Houston Chronicle.
The latest Zogby/Wall Street Journal/Battleground States poll shows the governor’s race tightening significantly, to the point that Rick Perry is in dangerous territory. The numbers in parenthesis represent published reports about the recent poll conducted by Opinion Analysts, an Austin firm, for the Texas Trial Lawyers Association:Perry (R)
Finally we have a poll that can be believed. It was conducted by Opinion Analysts for Texans for Insurance Reform PAC, which is to say the trial lawyers, and was reported on the Houston Chronicle Web site. The results: Perry 41%, Strayhorn 14%, Bell and Friedman 13% each, and
The following analysis of the 23rd congressional district race is a D.C. perspective by Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, which is one of the major Washington political newsletters, along with those of Charles Cook, Larry Sabato, and the National Journal (the Hotline).“Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) is
I saw the Strayhorn TV spots today. In both spots, she appears before a plain background, speaking directly to the audience. The ads have two common themes. One is an attack on “Austin.” The other is an effort to explain why she is running as an independent, without ever using
University of Virginia political savant Larry Sabato offers a good analysis of the governor’s race on his Crystal Ball newsletter on the Web:“A recent trip to Texas convinced the Crystal Ball that if the opposition to Gov. Rick Perry wasn’t split, it might actually prevail. Few voters we
This was the day when Perry and Strayhorn unveiled their TV spots, to thunderous snores. No doubt the race will heat up, but the first round didn’t move the thermometer.Perry focused on border security. The video shows him walking high above the Rio Grande, with accompanied by a law enforcement
I don’t get it. Why is Ciro Rodriguez back in the race against Henry Bonilla? He has lost his last two races for Congress. He has only $80,000 in his campaign account, compared to Bonilla’s $2 million. He put his political ineptitude on display by getting out of the race
What is the mood of the electorate on the eve of Labor Day, the date when the fall campaign season begins in earnest? One poll suggests a weakening of party ties may be a significant factor in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted in a legislative district that includes
The news that Bob McTeer will step down as chancellor of the Texas A&M system could help solve a lot of problems in Texas politics. The ideal candidate to replace him should be (1) a devoted Aggie who (2) knows his way around the Capitol and (3) needs long-term employment.
The question raised by Ciro Rodriguez’s apparent withdrawal from the District 23 race for Congress against Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla is whether the Democrats’ chances of beating Bonilla are better or worse without him. Rodriguez is a former congressman who was well known on San Antonio’s South Side, which is
Governor Perry has called special elections to fill the unexpired terms of Tom DeLay in Congress, Frank Madla in the state Senate, and Vilma Luna in the Texas House of Represenatives, all of whom have resigned from the bodies to which they were elected. The special elections will be held
The latest Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll shows Perry leading with 34.8%, which is consistent with recent polls. Bell (23.1%) and Friedman (22.7%) are in a virtual dead heat for second. Strayhorn has only 9.6%, a disastrous showing.The story has been circulating for a couple of weeks that the big
After a summer of writing about automated telephone polls, I received such a call myself on Friday night. The first questions all involved Republican Congressman Michael McCaul of Austin, in whose district I reside, and were pretty standard (Did I plan to vote? Would I vote for McCaul?).
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a major PR/politics/polling firm based in Washington and San Francisco, recently (August 10-15) conducted a poll in the 23rd congressional district. Here are the results of the telephone survey of 405 likely voters (margin of error: +/- 4.9%):Henry Bonilla 44% (incumbent Republican)Ciro Rodriguez 24% (former congressman in
“I’m very disappointed in our justice system. There doesn’t seem to be any justice.”–Tom DeLay, yesterday, on Houston’s KTRK-TV.DeLay was referring, of course, to a series of rulings barring the Republican Party of Texas from declaring him ineligible to run as the Republican nominee for Congress from District 22 and
From a source close to the Perry campaign comes this e-mail about the methodology used by Survey USA in determining that the governor’s approval rating has slipped by 9 points since the previous poll. (See “Poll Axed,” August 22, below). This will not be entirely new to dedicated readers, both
The race for the 23rd congressional district gained a new entrant today. Lukin Gilliland, a San Antonio rancher and investor, joined incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla and former Democratic congressman Ciro Rodriguez in the battle to represent the megadistrict that stretches west along Interstate 10, and up the Rio Grande, all
The District 33 (Corpus Christi) blog is back in session. I was part of a small group who met today with Solomon Ortiz Jr., the Democratic nominee to replace Vilma Luna and the subject of much commentary from readers (see “Split Decision,” below). He has scads of boyish charm and
I never expected a post on an obscure Corpus Christi legislative race (See “Split Decision,” below) to generate so many comments. The anger of Democrats boiled over at my suggestion that the Republicans could win the seat in the heavily Democratic district due to a split in the Democratic party,
Just in: the latest Survey USA poll on the approval rating of all governors. It is not good news for Rick Perry. Since the last poll on August 6, Perry’s approval rating has declined from 52% to 43%, while his disapproval rate has done exactly the reverse–climb from 43%
I herewith offer these thoughts on the Nathan Hecht controversy–he is appealing his admonition by the State Commission on Judicial Conduct for his public support of the nomination of Harriet Miers to the U.S. Supreme Court last year–as red meat for the critics.Here is a summary of the case from
When Corpus Christi state representative Vilma Luna decided to give up her legislative seat in July to take a lobbying job in Austin with Hillco Partners, the Democratic party had every reason to believe that the seat would remain in the party’s column. The Republicans had not fielded a candidate
A friend who takes issue with my recent posts (“Main Event” and “Main Event, the Post-Mortem,” in which I asserted that the thwarting of the terrorist plot at Heathrow Airport would benefit the Republicans in the midterm elections, has been bombarding me with e-mailed poll results showing that, so far,
Survey USA came out with a new poll yesterday about the president’s state-by-state approval rating. Texas is fifth highest (54%) behind Idaho (59%), Wyoming (58%), Utah (57%), and Nebraska (55%). The only other states where Bush scored at least 50% were Alabama, Montana, North Dakota, and Oklahoma? Can
Those fratricidal Republicans are at it again. Earlier this month, the Dallas Morning News finally got state GOP executive director Jeff Fisher to acknowledge what everybody knew, which was that a 2005 telephone poll to determine the level of support of several “moderate” (that is, conservative, as opposed to
Let’s try reposting this. Apparently some readers were too harried to check out the link for this story [hint, guys, click here] from August 5 Las Vegas Sun and didn’t have a clue what I was talking about. As far as I can tell, the Texas media missed this
When this blog started in early July, rumors were rife that Ben Bentzin, the Republican nominee in Texas House District 48 (West Austin) against Democrat Donna Howard, would withdraw from the race. Several GOP sources told me that was not the case, which I posted, which a couple of e-mailers
In “Main Event,” which I posted yesterday, I argued that the news of the terrorist bombing plots would work to the Republicans’ advantage in the fall elections. Four of the six readers who posted comments took issue with the post, as did our editor, Evan Smith, who told me
When you look at the ocean, it appears to be immutable and everlasting. But it is subject to forces beyond its control. Small changes occur because of the tides. Great changes occur because of tropical storms. So it is with politics. We think we know how it is shaping up,
Just to make sure that nobody missed the latest Rasmussen poll in the governor’s race (500 likely voters), the Bell campaign sent out their own release with the spin that Bell had knocked 10 points off Perry’s lead since the previous poll. Half of that is Perry’s own slippage. The
Now that we don’t have Tom DeLay to kick around any more, what are the prospects that the Republicans can effectively mount a write-in campaign against Democratic nominee Nick Lampson? Start with the rules: A candidate must file a Declaration of Write-In Candidacy with the Secretary of State’s office by
Just out: Justice Scalia refused to stay the order of the Fifth Circuit that Tom DeLay’s name should remain on the ballot. James Bopp, attorney for the Republican Party of Texas and chairman Tina Benkiser, said that he will not pursue the appeal. The link has the full story.
The resolution of the redistricting lawsuit became a battleground in the race for attorney general — although it’s not much of a race when the outcome is predestined. Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and his longshot Democratic challenger, David Van Os put out dueling press releases on the subject,
A reader who identifies himself as “Hopeful Democrat” commented on my post about the redistricting case (“Exit Lines”): “Please clarify your statement to the effect that it is unlikely that Democrats will win seats in November now held by Tom DeLay and Henry Bonilla. Do you mean that both seats
To: Ken Mehlman, Chairman, Republican National CommitteeFrom: Paul Burka, humble bloggerRe: Your mailed invitation to take part in the official CENSUS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTYI am so glad that you have chosen me as a representative of all Republicans living in my voting district. I am particularly honored that, as
The only surprise in the new congressional redistricting map for Central and South Texas drawn by a three-judge federal court was the inclusion of District 15, represented by Ruben Hinojosa, of Mercedes, among the districts the Court revised. The panel’s general intentions became known early in Thursday’s lengthy